Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Santos		San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4.4
	1.85	3.25	4.25	Watch
	1.88	3.37	4.61
	1.86	3.41	4.48	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.33
	1.91	3.36	4.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.8)	3.29 ↓ (3.42)	4.4 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
50.2%

Draw
28.5%

San Lorenzo
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.6%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

27.3%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

San Lorenzo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Santos - San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). San Lorenzo will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 4. Lucas Verissimo (C) 30. Miguelito 28. Oliva C. 15. Willian Arao 49. Gabriel Bontempo 32. Rollheiser B. 22. Barreal A. 9. Gabriel Barbosa	12. Gill O. (G) 32. Herrera E. 4. Romana J. 55. Montenegro L. 8. Insaurralde M. 24. Tripichio N. (C) 28. Barrios N. 10. Gulli F. 6. De Ritis M. 29. Auzmendi R. 9. Cuello A.
Substitutes
19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 48. Gustavo Henrique 26. Joao Ananias 21. Moises 81. Pierri S. 38. Rafael Gonzaga 8. Rincon T. 7. Robinho Jr. 67. Rodrigo Falcao (G) 11. Rony 2. Ze Ivaldo	26. Abrego G. 35. Cordoba A. 16. Corujo G. 25. Devecchi J. (G) 18. Herazo D. 14. Ladstatter A. 34. Lopez F. 5. Perruzzi I. 13. Rattalino J. 11. Reali M. 17. Rodriguez G. 3. Rodriguez Pagano T.
Coaches
Cuca	Alvarez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Gabriel Bontempo ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
15', Lucas Verissimo 🟨,
44', Insaurralde M. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 0, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rollheiser B. ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
55', Tripichio N. 🟨,
57', Willian Arao 🟨,
59', Miguelito ↓, Rony ↑,
72', 2 - 1, De Ritis M. ⚽,
74', Montenegro L. 🟨,
78', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Pierri S. ↑,
78', Barreal A. ↓, Rafael Gonzaga ↑,
84', De Ritis M. ↓, Rodriguez Pagano T. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Auzmendi R. ⚽, Gulli F. (A),
85', Oliva C. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
90+5', Igor Vinicius 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Santos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Santos is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santos won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Santos won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Coritiba - Santos	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Santos	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWWTT
- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.05.26	River Plate - San Lorenzo	3:2 penalties ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Cuenca - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	San Lorenzo - Independiente	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Platense - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:1
Copa Libertadores
13.04.21	Santos - San Lorenzo	2:2
06.04.21	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:3

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