Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 19

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.82	3.4	4.6
	1.78	3.4	4.65
	1.82	3.57	4.92
	1.80	3.46	4.84	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.6
	1.81	3.52	4.86	Watch
	1.82	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.93)	3.43 ↑ (3.33)	4.66 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
52.3%

Draw
27.5%

Sport Recife
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

28.4%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

27.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Grêmio - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Recife will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Recife (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tiago Volpi (G) 15. Camilo Reijers 13. Fabian Balbuena 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 8. Edenilson 65. Freitas dos Santos R. 47. Alysson 22. Braithwaite M. 99. Olivera C.	1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 16. Igor Carius 14. Rivera C. 58. Ze Lucas 10. Lucas Lima 17. Matheusinho 18. Derik Lacerda 38. Leo Pereira
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 9. Amuzu F. 16. Aravena A. 95. Carlos Vinicius 10. Cristaldo F. 6. Cuellar G. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 21. Jemerson 25. Lucas Esteves 35. Ronald 44. Viery 20. Villasanti M.	13. Aderlan 20. Atencio R. 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 19. Hyoran 3. Kevyson 92. Pablo 28. Pedro Augusto 9. Ramirez I. 46. Riquelme 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.
Coaches
Mano Menezes	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Alysson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Matheusinho ⚽, Leo Pereira (A),
58', Olivera C. ↓, Carlos Vinicius ↑,
59', Edenilson ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
70', Leo Pereira ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
78', Matheusinho ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
79', Freitas dos Santos R. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
84', Dodi ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
84', Camilo Reijers ↓, Villasanti M. ↑,
87', Braithwaite M. 🟨,
89', Derik Lacerda ↓, Pablo ↑,
89', Ze Lucas ↓, Silva J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.

Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Recife is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Grêmio is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique (Muscle Injury) Cuellar G. (Thigh Injury) Gustavo Martins (Hamstring Injury) Luan Candido (Inactive) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury) Walter Kannemann (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Injury) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Carlos Vinicius (Inactive) Fabian Balbuena (Inactive) Joao Pedro (Broken ankle) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 2.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
02.08.25	Fluminense - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
29.07.25	Grêmio - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.25	Grêmio - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLTT
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
02.08.25	Sport Recife - Bahia	0:0 ✺
26.07.25	Sport Recife - Santos	2:2 ✺
23.07.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	2:2 ✺
20.07.25	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
14.07.25	Juventude - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.09.22	Grêmio - Sport Recife	3:0
13.06.22	Sport Recife - Grêmio	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
03.10.21	Grêmio - Sport Recife	1:2
17.06.21	Sport Recife - Grêmio	1:0
19.12.20	Sport Recife - Grêmio	1:1
03.09.20	Grêmio - Sport Recife	1:2
27.10.18	Grêmio - Sport Recife	3:4

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