Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.25	4.5	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.95	Watch
	1.97	3.33	4.59
	1.93	3.12	4.43	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.9
	1.95	3.29	4.42	Watch
	1.92	3.25	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (1.99)	3.24 ↓ (3.25)	4.33 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
49%

Draw
29.2%

Grêmio
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.3%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

27.5%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

São Paulo - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Grêmio (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 94. Danielzinho 16. Bobadilla D. 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano (C) 8. Marcos Antonio 9. Jonathan Calleri	1. Weverton (G) 18. Joao Pedro 2. Fabian Balbuena 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 19. Noriega E. 29. Arthur Melo (C) 8. Edenilson 21. Tete 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.
Substitutes
31. Carlos Coronel (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 45. Lucca Marques 42. Maik 4. Matheus Doria 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell	77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 53. Gustavo Martins 14. Marcos Rocha 7. Pavon C. 39. Tiago 4. Walter Kannemann 88. Willian
Coaches
Crespo H.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Weverton 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Lucas Moura (Penalty Awarded),
32', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
40', Edenilson ↓, Willian ↑,
45', Luciano 🟨,
45+4', Pablo Maia 🟨,
45+5', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
53', Amuzu F. ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Luciano (A),
63', Luciano (Penalty Awarded),
68', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
69', Joao Pedro ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
70', Tete ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
70', Franco A. ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
71', Lucas Moura ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
85', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
85', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
90+5', Andre Henrique 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.

São Paulo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

São Paulo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.09%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	São Paulo - EC Primavera	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTWWL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
07.02.26	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	5:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
25.01.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.10.25	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:0
17.05.25	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:1
01.12.24	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1
17.07.24	São Paulo - Grêmio	1:0
21.10.23	São Paulo - Grêmio	3:0
04.06.23	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1
02.12.21	Grêmio - São Paulo	3:0

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