Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Costa Rica	19:00	TD +, TDMAX


	Guadalupe		Cariari Pococí

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.40	3.50
	1.85	3.35	3.5
	1.83	3.55	3.73
	1.89	3.68	3.72	Watch
	1.81	3.4	3.55
	1.88	3.55	3.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.05)	3.49 ↑ (3.35)	3.63 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guadalupe
49%

Draw
26%

Cariari Pococí
25%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

26.3%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

25.7%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guadalupe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guadalupe's performance.

Cariari Pococí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cariari Pococí might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guadalupe than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cariari Pococí than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Guadalupe - Cariari Pococí Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalupe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
85', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 6th and 3rd in the Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalupe won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Recently, Cariari has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Guadalupe is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Guadalupe has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:17 (averaging 1.8:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guadalupe against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 9:3 goals (averaging 1.8:0.6 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Cariari Pococí - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 30.63%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guadalupe FC
Costa Rican Liga de Ascenso
09.10.26	Carmelita - Guadalupe	0:2 ✺
04.10.26	Aserrí - Guadalupe	2:3 ✺
27.09.26	Guadalupe - Pitbulls	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Guadalupe - Moravia	0:3 ✺
13.09.26	Santa Ana - Guadalupe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWTLL
- AD Cariari Pococí
Costa Rican Liga de Ascenso
10.10.26	Cariari Pococí - Moravia	1:0 ✺
04.10.26	Santa Ana - Cariari Pococí	1:0 ✺
01.10.26	Cariari Pococí - Santa Ana	1:2 ✺
28.09.26	Cariari Pococí - Uruguay de Coronado	1:1 ✺
24.09.26	Cariari Pococí - Pitbulls	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Costa Rican Liga de Ascenso
29.08.26	Cariari Pococí - Guadalupe	3:3
20.03.25	Guadalupe - Cariari Pococí	0:0
06.02.25	Cariari Pococí - Guadalupe	3:1
02.10.24	Cariari Pococí - Guadalupe	3:1
28.08.24	Guadalupe - Cariari Pococí	3:0
09.03.24	Guadalupe - Cariari Pococí	3:0
27.01.24	Cariari Pococí - Guadalupe	1:2

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