Match Info

CHINA: SUPER LEAGUE - ROUND 33

Date: 27 December 2022, Tuesday

Location: Tianhe Stadium (Guangzhou)


	Guangzhou Evergrande		Changchun Yatai

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.5	2	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2
	3	3.5	2.2
	3.3	3.5	2.05
	3.37	3.65	2.11
	3.4	3.25	2
	3.32	3.56	2.05
	3.3	3.5	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↓ (3.59)	3.48 ↑ (3.23)	2.06 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guangzhou Evergrande
27.9%

Draw
26.8%

Changchun Yatai
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

28.5%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

28.2%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guangzhou Evergrande has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Changchun Yatai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guangzhou Evergrande than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changchun Yatai than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	6.2%	56.2%

Guangzhou Evergrande - Changchun Yatai Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Guangzhou Evergrande will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Changchun Yatai will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Changchun Yatai: 32% – 80.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League and 13).

Guangzhou Evergrande has the most likely position - 1 (100%), has project points - 72, has currently - 72, has not chance of relegated, was already of qualify for acl, was already of win league.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guangzhou Evergrande won 3.

Guangzhou Evergrande is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Changchun Yatai is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Changchun Yatai could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Changchun Yatai have a series of guest games.

Changchun Yatai will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Guangzhou Evergrande won 11 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 35-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Guangzhou Evergrande won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 21-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guangzhou Evergrande TH
Chinese Super League
23.12.22	Guangzhou Evergrande - Beijing Guoan	1:3 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
18.12.22	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Guangzhou Evergrande	3:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
15.12.22	Guangzhou Evergrande - Shandong Taishan	2:4 ✺
10.12.22	Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangzhou City	0:0 ✺
05.12.22	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Guangzhou Evergrande	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLLTT
- Changchun Yatai
Chinese Super League
23.12.22	Meizhou Hakka - Changchun Yatai	1:0 ✺
15.12.22	Beijing Guoan - Changchun Yatai	3:0 ✺
10.12.22	Shenzhen - Changchun Yatai	0:2 ✺
04.12.22	Wuhan - Changchun Yatai	1:1 ✺
30.11.22	Wuhan Three Towns - Changchun Yatai	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
05.10.22	Changchun Yatai - Guangzhou Evergrande	0:0
01.01.22	Guangzhou Evergrande - Changchun Yatai	2:0
19.12.21	Changchun Yatai - Guangzhou Evergrande	0:2
11.08.18	Changchun Yatai - Guangzhou Evergrande	3:2
09.03.18	Guangzhou Evergrande - Changchun Yatai	5:0
08.09.17	Guangzhou Evergrande - Changchun Yatai	3:1
14.05.17	Changchun Yatai - Guangzhou Evergrande	0:1

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