Match Info

Copa Paraguay - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Rogelio Livieres (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Paraguay	Tigo Sports


	Guaraní Asuncion		River Plate Asunción

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.49	3.7	5.9
	1.49	3.85	5.8
	1.21	5.77	13.50	Watch
	1.46	3.74	6.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.47)	4.27 ↑ (3.8)	8.01 ↑ (6.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guaraní Asuncion
66.3%

Draw
22%

River Plate Asunción
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

24%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

23.2%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

River Plate Asunción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Asunción than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Guaraní Asuncion - River Plate Asunción Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - River Plate (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Arzamendia M. (G)
29. Alfonso O.
26. Fernandez D.
5. Lopez M.
20. Maidana A.
8. Maiz A.
18. Mino Amarilla C. E.
24. Patino Martinez J.
37. Perez D.
11. Rodriguez D.
17. Torales R.
Substitutes
39. Alvarenga J.
13. Cabanas V.
40. Fernandez F.
36. Martinez L.
30. Perez A. (G)
9. Ramirez I.
15. Servin T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Alfonso O. ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, Alfonso O. ⚽,
40', 🟨,
41', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', 🟨,
63', 🟨,
72', 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Guaraní is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, River Plate has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

River Plate may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Guaraní is the clear favorite.

We predict that Guaraní will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:3. (average 3.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Guaraní won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.10.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Atlético Tembetary	1:0 ✺
Copa Paraguay
01.10.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	2:3 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.09.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTWWT
- River Plate Asunción
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
04.10.25	Resistencia - River Plate Asunción	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	River Plate Asunción - Guaireña	2:4 ✺
Copa Paraguay
25.09.25	River Plate Asunción - Resistencia	2:1 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
21.09.25	Sportivo Carapeguá - River Plate Asunción	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	River Plate Asunción - Independiente Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
20.11.21	Guaraní Asuncion - River Plate Asunción	2:1
29.08.21	River Plate Asunción - Guaraní Asuncion	1:5
12.04.21	Guaraní Asuncion - River Plate Asunción	2:0
09.02.21	River Plate Asunción - Guaraní Asuncion	1:4

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