Match Info

Paulista - Round 6

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Botafogo SP		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.57	Watch
	5.75	4.1	1.53
	6.39	3.84	1.56
	5.94	4.03	1.54	Watch
	5.75	3.5	1.53
	6.13	3.65	1.51	Watch
	6.33	3.75	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.97 ↓ (6.09)	3.82 ↓ (4.01)	1.54 ↑ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
15.6%

Draw
24.3%

Palmeiras
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

23.3%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15%

22.9%

62.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Botafogo SP - Palmeiras Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 6. Gabriel Inocencio 3. Ericson (C) 4. Vilar 21. Patrick Brey 5. Maciel L. 16. Matheus Sales 7. Hygor 10. Rafael Gava 23. Kelvin 11. Jefferson Nem	14. Marcelo Lomba (C) 4. Giay A. 3. Bruno Fuchs 43. Benedetti 6. Jefte 48. Larson 32. Martinez E. 37. Riquelme Fillipi 45. Erick Bele 31. Luighi 9. Vitor Roque
Substitutes
14. Carlao 8. Everton Morelli 15. Guilherme Mariano 19. Guilherme Queiroz 30. Henrique Teles 2. Jonathan 12. Jordan (G) 9. Leo Gamalho 17. Marcio Maranhao 20. Marquinho 29. Thalles 27. Yuri Felipe	40. Allan Elias 8. Andreas Pereira 24. Aranha (G) 56. Arthur Gabriel 11. Bruno Rodrigues 12. Khellven 42. Lopez J. 50. Luis Pacheco 27. Marlon Freitas 18. Mauricio 26. Murilo 19. Sosa R.
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Matheus Sales 🟨,
33', Hygor 🟨,
45', Maciel L. 🟨,
45+3', Larson 🟨,
45+4', Gabriel Inocencio 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Matheus Sales ↓, Everton Morelli ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Maciel L. ⚽,
54', Vilar 🟨,
62', Benedetti ↓, Marlon Freitas ↑,
62', Larson ↓, Andreas Pereira ↑,
62', Erick Bele ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
64', Vilar 🟨,
66', Riquelme Fillipi ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
67', Luighi ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
67', Kelvin ↓, Carlao ↑,
80', Rafael Gava ↓, Marcio Maranhao ↑,
80', Jefferson Nem ↓, Jonathan ↑,
82', Sosa R. 🟨,
89', Hygor ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
90+3', Victor Souza 🟨,
90+4', Marcio Maranhao 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 0.

Botafogo SP has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Palmeiras is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Hygor (Inactive) Jeferson (Injury) Wallace (Inactive)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson (Inactive) Figueiredo (Inactive) Lucas Evangelista (Hamstring Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.5:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.4%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
22.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Primavera	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo SP	5:0 ✺
15.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Velo Clube - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLTT
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
20.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
20.02.25	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	3:1
Copa do Brasil
23.05.24	Botafogo SP - Palmeiras	0:0
02.05.24	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.03.24	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	1:0
19.01.23	Botafogo SP - Palmeiras	0:1
18.04.21	Botafogo SP - Palmeiras	0:0
23.01.19	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	1:0

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