Match Info

Challenge League - Round 15

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Gudja United		Mġarr United

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.2	2.32	Watch
	2.74	3.19	2.34
	2.73	3.31	2.35	Watch
	2.75	3	2.3
	2.68	3.67	2.3
	2.66	3.14	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.44)	3.25 ↓ (3.55)	2.32 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gudja United
33.3%

Draw
27.8%

Mġarr United
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

25.6%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

25.9%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gudja United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Mġarr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gudja United than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Gudja United - Mġarr United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gudja United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Mgarr	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3
15	Gudja	2	0	0	2	0:5	-5	0

Last Results with these Odds

Gudja United - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.21%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gudja United
Maltese Challenge League
08.02.26	Gudja United - Swieqi United	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Gudja United	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Gudja United - Sirens	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Fgura United - Gudja United	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Paola Hibernians - Gudja United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTWTL
- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
07.02.26	Mġarr United - Fgura United	2:4 ✺
01.02.26	Żurrieq - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
28.01.26	Mġarr United - Mosta	0:3 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
18.01.26	Mtarfa - Mġarr United	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Mġarr United - Swieqi United	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
15.09.24	Mġarr United - Gudja United	0:1

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