What is the expert prediction for Guingamp vs Caen?

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Guingamp vs Caen Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, December 22, 2024)

Match Info

FRANCE: Coupe de France - 1/32-finals

Date: 22 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade de Roudourou (Guingamp)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Canada	beIN Connect
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	TVC Deportes
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start Triumph
Slovakia	Voyo
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
Usa	beIN Connect, Fox Soccer Plus
World	Fanatiz


	Guingamp		Caen

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	4.1	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.8	3.8	4.25	Watch
	1.78	3.55	5.13
	1.7	3.2	5.35	Watch
	1.83	3.4	4
	1.82	3.24	4.82	Watch
	1.8	3.8	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2)	3.52 ↑ (3)	4.49 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

Watch this match and Coupe De France with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Soccer Plus

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Current Win Probability

Guingamp
52.7%

Draw
26.5%

Caen
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

29.2%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

27%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guingamp's performance.

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guingamp that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: Guingamp will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Niasse B. (G) 2. Sissoko A. 6. Riou M. 5. Lemonnier P. 3. Ourega D. 8. Sidibe K. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 7. Guendouz S. 11. Hemia A. 10. Picard H. 9. Siwe J.	1. Clementia Y. (G) 2. Gaucho Debohi D. 5. Ntim E. 4. Thomas R. (C) 3. Bolumbu D. 6. Tome G. 7. Milliner L. 8. Lebreton N. 10. Brahimi B. 11. Autret M. 9. Mendy A.
Substitutes
16. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 20. Demouchy A. 17. Ghrieb R. 12. Gomis D. 15. Labeau B. 19. Luvambo T. 14. Mendes J. A. 13. Phiri L. 18. Touzghar R.	13. Cande U. 18. Coulibaly K. 19. Gomis T. 15. Hafid M. 17. Le Bihan M. 16. Mandrea A. (G) 14. Rajot L. 12. Sy L. 20. Verhaeghe R.
Coaches
Ripoll S.	Seube N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Autret M. 🟨,
28', Ntim E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', Hemia A. 🟨,
64', Siwe J. ↓, Labeau B. ↑,
65', Hemia A. ↓, Luvambo T. ↑,
65', Guendouz S. ↓, Ghrieb R. ↑,
69', Autret M. ↓, Rajot L. ↑,
69', Tome G. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
69', Milliner L. ↓, Le Bihan M. ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Luvambo T. ⚽, Picard H. (A),
82', Ourega D. ↓, Demouchy A. ↑,
82', Louiserre D. ↓, Phiri L. ↑,
83', Lebreton N. ↓, Coulibaly K. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Mendy A. ⚽, Brahimi B. (A),
90+2', 2 - 1, Picard H. ⚽, Sidibe K. (A),
90+7', Demouchy A. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guingamp won 4.

Recent matches Guingamp is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Caen is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Caen could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

In this match Guingamp is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Guingamp won 6 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 22:21 (average 1.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Guingamp won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:12 (average 1.1:1).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
13.12.24	Bastia - Guingamp	3:1 ✺
06.12.24	Martigues - Guingamp	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
30.11.24	Dinan-Léhon - Guingamp	1:4 ✺
French Ligue 2
22.11.24	Guingamp - Amiens	3:0 ✺
09.11.24	Lorient - Guingamp	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWL
- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
16.12.24	Dunkerque - Caen	3:1 ✺
06.12.24	Laval - Caen	1:0 ✺
22.11.24	Caen - Rodez	3:3 ✺
Coupe De France
16.11.24	Chartres - Caen	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 2
09.11.24	Metz - Caen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
30.09.24	Guingamp - Caen	3:1
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Caen - Guingamp	1:6
French Ligue 2
17.02.24	Guingamp - Caen	1:0
30.09.23	Caen - Guingamp	0:1
25.02.23	Guingamp - Caen	1:2
20.08.22	Caen - Guingamp	4:1
30.04.22	Guingamp - Caen	2:1

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