Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 21 September 2023, Thursday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Referee: Barbu M. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV6
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	HJK		PAOK

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.6	1.85
	4.2	3.6	1.82	Watch
	4.25	3.5	1.87
	4.38	3.59	1.89
	4.33	3.62	1.82
	4.2	3.6	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.26 ↑ (3.52)	3.59 ↑ (3.44)	1.86 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
22.3%

Draw
26.5%

PAOK
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

27.3%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

27.2%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

PAOK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting PAOK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for PAOK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.3%	13.3%	83.3%

HJK - PAOK Predictions

Users Predictions: PAOK will win (25 of 30 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.99% – 96.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
85. Maenpaa N. (G) 4. Toivio J. 5. Da Graca K. 22. Raitala J. (C) 23. Soiri P. 24. Kanellopoulos G. 10. Lingman L. 3. Hamalainen N. 56. Hetemaj P. 9. Radulovic B. 17. Bande H.	42. Kotarski D. (G) 16. Kedziora T. 15. Troost-Ekong W. 4. Koulierakis K. 21. Baba A. R. 6. Tsingaras T. 22. Schwab S. (C) 14. Zivkovic A. 10. Murg T. 77. Despodov K. 33. Samatta M.
Substitutes
7. Hostikka S. 18. Keskinen T. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 2. Ollila T. 29. Olusanya A. 1. Ost J. (G) 19. Paananen A. 46. Pettersson O. 78. Ramula A. (G) 11. Riski Ro. 8. Rogic F. 37. Tanaka A.	7. Konstantelias G. 19. Lyratzis L. 8. Meite S. 5. Michailidis G. 27. Ozdoev M. 55. Rafa 11. Taison 71. Thomas B. 95. Tzimas S. 20. Vieirinha 29. Vrakas G. 18. Zivkovic Z. (G)
Coaches
Korkeakunnas T.	Lucescu R.

Preview

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

In this match PAOK is a favorite.

There will not play in PAOK: Marcos Antonio (Muscle Injury) Soares F. (Injury)

There are questionable in HJK: Iliev D. (Elbow Injury) Pettersson O. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
16.09.23	HJK - Inter Turku	2:0 ✺
03.09.23	HJK - KuPS Kuopio	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	HJK - Farul Constanța	2:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.08.23	Oulu - HJK	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.08.23	Farul Constanța - HJK	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWWL
- PAOK FC
Greek Super League
17.09.23	PAOK - Aris	0:0 ✺
03.09.23	OFI - PAOK	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	PAOK - Hearts	4:0 ✺
Greek Super League
27.08.23	PAOK - AE Kifisia	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.08.23	Hearts - PAOK	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLWWW

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