Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Poljud (Split)

Referee: Ocenas M. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Croatia	Hajduk TV
Germany	Laola1


	Hajduk Split		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.4
	1.98	3.2	3.6
	1.96	3.25	3.70	Watch
	2.07	3.30	3.71
	1.99	3.45	3.85	Watch
	2.03	3.20	3.65
	2.09	3.37	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.30	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.04)	3.31 ↓ (3.43)	3.65 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hajduk Split
46.3%

Draw
28.2%

Raków Częstochowa
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

27.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

26.1%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hajduk Split has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hajduk Split than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76%	12%	12%

Hajduk Split - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Hajduk will win (votes: 19 - 76%). Raków will win (votes: 3 - 12%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hajduk: 59.3% – 92.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hajduk (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hajduk (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Raków (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Hajduk (votes: 2 - 50%). Raków (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silic T. (G) 8. Sigur N. 15. Maresic D. 14. Raci R. 32. Hrgovic S. 21. Pukstas R. 4. Pajaziti A. 7. Sanyang A. 9. de Almeida D. 23. Soticek M. 11. Sego M. (C)	1. Trelowski K. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 10. Kochergin V. 6. Repka O. 26. Otieno E. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 11. Emreli M. 15. Kwiatkowski O.
Substitutes
19. Brruti E. 20. del Moral A. 3. Gabric R. 26. Guram A. 38. Hodak L. 1. Ivusic I. (G) 10. Livaja M. 17. Melnjak D. 36. Skelin M. 44. Stipica D. (G) 16. Sutalo A. 5. Van Hoorenbeeck A.	3. Brorsson A. 39. Brusberg I. 77. Debohi D. G. 17. Jendryka J. 71. Karic T. (G) 88. Molnar A. 2. Napieraj J. 21. Pienko T. 20. Silva J. C. 23. Struski K. 29. Zolneczko W. (G)
Coaches
Garcia G.	Kroczek D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Sego M. ⚽, Sanyang A. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Emreli M. ⚽, Otieno E. (A),
31', Otieno E. 🟨,
33', Hrgovic S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Svarnas S. ↓, Debohi D. G. ↑,
47', 2 - 1, de Almeida D. ⚽, Soticek M. (A),
55', Pajaziti A. 🟥,
58', Kwiatkowski O. ↓, Pienko T. ↑,
58', Otieno E. ↓, Silva J. C. ↑,
61', Soticek M. ↓, del Moral A. ↑,
62', de Almeida D. 🟨,
67', Tudor F. ↓, Brorsson A. ↑,
68', Sanyang A. ↓, Sutalo A. ↑,
68', de Almeida D. ↓, Melnjak D. ↑,
74', Kochergin V. ↓, Brusberg I. ↑,
76', Sego M. ↓, Livaja M. ↑,
77', Hrgovic S. ↓, Van Hoorenbeeck A. ↑,
79', del Moral A. 🟨,
81', Pienko T. 🟨,
90+4', Pukstas R. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Diaby-Fadiga L. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Hajduk is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Raków has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hajduk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Raków has had a series of away games.

Hajduk will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Hajduk Split: 0.75%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hajduk Split
Croatian HNL
16.08.26	Gorica - Hajduk Split	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Hajduk Split - Žalgiris	4:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
09.08.26	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Žalgiris - Hajduk Split	2:5 ✺
Croatian HNL
02.08.26	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWTWL
- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.26	Cracovia - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Hammarby - Raków Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
06.08.26	Raków Częstochowa - Hammarby	0:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Valletta - Raków Częstochowa	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWTLW

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