Match Info

Date: 5 April 2022, Tuesday


	Hamburger SV		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	9	Watch
	1.39	4.8	8	Watch
	1.34	5.1	8.5
	1.33	5.4	7.4
	1.38	5.26	8.69
	1.32	5	8.5
	1.35	5.45	8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.48)	5.14 ↑ (4.25)	8.3 ↑ (6.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
70.2%

Draw
18.4%

Erzgebirge Aue
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

21.8%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.8%

18.1%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hamburger SV's performance.

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hamburger SV, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).

Hamburg has the most likely position - 4 (21.38%), has project points - 57, has currently - 41, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (23%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Aue has the most likely position - 17 (57.93%), has project points - 27, has currently - 19, has a good chance of relegated (95%), has not chance of promoted.

This event has quality 31, importance 39, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 2.

Recent matches Hamburg is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aue is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aue could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Hamburg is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Hamburg won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
02.04.22	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
24.03.22	Viborg - Hamburger SV	5:4 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
19.03.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
05.03.22	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.03.22	Hamburger SV - Karlsruher	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLW
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
01.04.22	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	3:2 ✺
18.03.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Karlsruher	0:3 ✺
06.03.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Jahn Regensburg	1:0 ✺
25.02.22	Paderborn - Erzgebirge Aue	3:3 ✺
20.02.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
01.10.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	1:1
05.02.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	3:3
21.10.20	Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0
29.02.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	3:0
22.09.19	Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue	4:0
20.04.19	Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
10.11.18	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	1:3

Upcoming Matches