The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Erzgebirge Aue 36.2%
Draw 26.4%
Karlsruher 37.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
34.4%
27.4%
38.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
24.6%
19.6%
53.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
Karlsruher has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-11.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Erzgebirge Aue that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karlsruher than the current prediction. (+16%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karlsruher could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Erzgebirge Aue - Karlsruher Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 9).
Aue has the most likely position - 17 (64.34%), has project points - 28, has currently - 19, has a good chance of relegated (94%), has not chance of promoted.
Karlsruher has the most likely position - 9 (20.39%), has project points - 46, has currently - 34, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality29, very small importance9, small match rating19. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Aue won 2.
Aue is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Karlsruher is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Karlsruher could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
Last 14 head-to-head matches Aue won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-10.
Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15-3.