Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	RB Leipzig		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.40	5.25	6.50	Watch
	1.41	5.50	6.25
	1.35	5.40	7.00	Watch
	1.41	5.80	7.06
	1.34	6.04	7.3	Watch
	1.38	5.45	7.15
	1.43	5.48	7.41	Watch
	1.42	5.60	6.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.36)	5.57 ↑ (5.25)	6.93 ↓ (7.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
68.9%

Draw
17.2%

Hamburger SV
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

18%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

17.3%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	11.5%	7.7%

RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2 - Hamburg (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - RB Leipzig (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Hamburg (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 39. Henrichs B. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 6. Banzuzi E. 21. El Aynaoui N. 8. Ouedraogo A. 10. Gruda B. 27. Gomis T. 7. Nusa A.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 43. Nandja S. 23. Torunarigha J. 24. Capaldo N. 7. El Ouahdi Z. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. (C) 3. Wolfe D. 27. Daka P. 11. Gronbaek A. 15. Poulsen Y.
Substitutes
17. Baku R. 3. Esteve M. 35. Finkgrafe M. 9. Guiu M. 30. Maksimovic A. 28. Nkunku C. 1. Nyland O. (G) 40. Romulo Cardoso 13. Seiwald N.	5. Adeline M. 18. Jatta B. 37. Lemke L. 9. Moffi T. 4. Nadir B. 17. Omari W. 19. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 20. Vieira F.
Coaches
Demichelis M.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', Capaldo N. 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Gomis T. ⚽, Banzuzi E. (A),
28', 2 - 0, Nusa A. ⚽,
35', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Poulsen Y. ↓, Moffi T. ↑,
48', Lukeba C. 🟨,
71', Nandja S. 🟨,
72', 3 - 0, Orban W. ⚽, Nusa A. (A),
73', Daka P. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
73', Nandja S. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
74', Henrichs B. ↓, Baku R. ↑,
74', Gomis T. ↓, Romulo Cardoso ↑,
74', Lukeba C. ↓, Esteve M. ↑,
74', 4 - 0, Nkunku C. ⚽, Nusa A. (A),
77', 5 - 0, Romulo Cardoso ⚽,
78', Nusa A. ↓, Finkgrafe M. ↑,
78', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
89', El Ouahdi Z. ↓, Jatta B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Hamburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, RB Leipzig has had a series of away games.

In this match, RB Leipzig is the clear favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baumgartner C. (Thigh Injury) Reitz R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Amoako K. (Illness) Bornauw S. (Muscle Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:7. (average 2.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 3.03%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
UEFA Champions League
10.09.26	Como - RB Leipzig	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
29.08.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Eintracht Trier - RB Leipzig	0:6 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWWL
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
24.08.26	Verl - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Hamburger SV - Everton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2
18.10.25	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	2:1
German DFB Pokal
18.10.22	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	4:0
23.04.19	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:3
German Bundesliga
27.01.18	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	1:1
08.09.17	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	0:2
11.02.17	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	0:3

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