Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	3.9	4.2	1.75	Watch
	3.90	4.10	1.80
	4	4.1	1.78
	4.13	4.35	1.82
	3.76	4.29	1.83	Watch
	4	4.1	1.78
	4.45	4.11	1.83	Watch
	3.95	4.3	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.01 ↑ (3.53)	4.19 ↑ (4.06)	1.8 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
23.9%

Draw
22.8%

Stuttgart
53.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.9%

23.4%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

23.3%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	0%	89.3%

Hamburger SV - Stuttgart Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (25 of 28 users predict this - 89.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.84% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

In recent outings, Hamburg has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Stuttgart shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Hamburg could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Stuttgart for this game.

Confirmed absences for Hamburg: Daka P. (Thigh Injury) Remberg N. (Knee Injury) Vuskovic M. (Doping).

Confirmed absences for Stuttgart: Al Dakhil A. (Knee Injury) Diehl J. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Hamburg: Jatta B. (Groin Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Lacking Match Fitness).

Doubtful / questionable for Stuttgart: Mittelstadt M. (Heel Injury) Nartey N. (Muscle Injury) Tomas T. (Muscle Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Hamburg has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:39 (averaging 1.4:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hamburg against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 19:20 goals (averaging 1.9:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	8:9	-1	6
13	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	5:15	-10	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	Hamburger SV - Copenhagen	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WWWLL
- VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Champions League
14.10.26	Slovan Bratislava - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	Paderborn - Stuttgart	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.10.26	Stuttgart - Greuther Fürth	5:0 ✺
25.09.26	Stuttgart - Heidenheim	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	4:0
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1
German 2 Bundesliga
05.06.23	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	1:3
01.06.23	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:0
Club Friendly
26.08.20	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:2
German 2 Bundesliga
28.05.20	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:2
German DFB Pokal
29.10.19	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	1:2 ET

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