Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Exercise Stadium (Harrogate) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	16:00	DAZN
Argentina	11:00	DAZN
Austria	16:00	DAZN
Bolivia	10:00	DAZN
Brazil	11:00	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	17:00	DAZN
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada
Croatia	16:00	DAZN
Cyprus	17:00	DAZN
Czech Republic	16:00	DAZN
Denmark	16:00	DAZN
Ecuador	09:00	DAZN
Finland	17:00	DAZN
France	16:00	DAZN France
Germany	16:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	17:00	DAZN
Hungary	16:00	DAZN
Italy	16:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Latvia	17:00	DAZN
Lithuania	17:00	DAZN
New Zealand	03:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	16:00	DAZN
Norway	16:00	DAZN
Paraguay	10:00	DAZN
Poland	16:00	DAZN
Portugal	15:00	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	17:00	DAZN
Serbia	16:00	DAZN
Slovenia	16:00	DAZN
Spain	16:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	DAZN
Switzerland	16:00	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	22:00	DAZN
Turkey	17:00	DAZN Turkiye
Ukraine	17:00	DAZN
United Kingdom	15:00	DAZN
Uruguay	11:00	DAZN
Usa	10:00	DAZN USA
Venezuela	10:00	DAZN
International	14:00	DAZN National League


	Harrogate Town		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.90	5.25
	1.52	4.00	4.75
	1.53	4.20	5.10
	1.61	4.14	5.49
	1.56	4.25	5.1	Watch
	1.59	3.90	5.40
	1.59	3.95	5.32
	1.54	4.20	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.56)	4.07 ↑ (3.95)	5.2 ↑ (5.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harrogate Town
59.3%

Draw
22.8%

Hornchurch
17.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.7%

23.1%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

22.1%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harrogate Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Harrogate Town - Hornchurch Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Harrogate will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Hornchurch will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hornchurch (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Harrogate Town (1.55) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Hutchinson L. (G) 26. Horton G. 16. Dreyer S. 4. Baptiste A. 24. Cass L. 11. McGowan W. 14. Williams M. 3. Bristow E. 15. Hobson B. (C) 23. Dolaghan B. 17. Hmami J.	1. Nasta A. (G) 26. Rowe A. 22. Edwards F. 3. Inniss R. (C) 6. Dallison T. 2. Greenidge W. 4. Powell J. 27. Massey A. 11. Sandat H. 21. Poleon D. 16. Alexander G.
Substitutes
6. Burrell W. 19. Craig M. 9. McCoulsky S. 35. McGuckin C. 1. Oxley M. (G) 21. Taylor E. 7. Thomson G.	10. Balanta A. 5. Baldwin J. 13. Byrne R. (G) 9. Hearn H. 14. Pegrum C. 7. Walker J. 18. Weston M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Rowe A. 🟨,
28', Dolaghan B. (Penalty Awarded),
36', 1 - 0, Williams M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Edwards F. ↓, Baldwin J. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, McGowan W. ⚽, Bristow E. (A),
65', 3 - 0, Cass L. ⚽, Bristow E. (A),
66', Alexander G. ↓, Balanta A. ↑,
66', Poleon D. ↓, Walker J. ↑,
66', Rowe A. ↓, Weston M. ↑,
77', Dolaghan B. ↓, McCoulsky S. ↑,
77', Hmami J. ↓, McGuckin C. ↑,
77', McGowan W. ↓, Thomson G. ↑,
77', Bristow E. ↓, Taylor E. ↑,
80', Hobson B. ↓, Craig M. ↑,
80', Greenidge W. ↓, Hearn H. ↑,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - National League Playoffs - Semi - finals and 10th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

In this matchup, Harrogate is considered the favorite to take the win.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Harrogate	14	10	1	3	32:18	14	31
11	Hornchurch	15	7	0	8	17:23	-6	21

Outrights of English National League for now

Harrogate: 5.97% Hornchurch: 0.42%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harrogate Town
English National League North
29.09.26	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Harrogate Town - Eastleigh	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Boreham Wood - Harrogate Town	4:1 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Harrogate Town - Fylde	1:2 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Harrogate Town - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLLW
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League North
29.09.26	Hornchurch - Aldershot Town	2:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Altrincham - Hornchurch	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Hornchurch - Scunthorpe United	1:0 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Worthing - Hornchurch	1:0 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Halifax Town - Hornchurch	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWLL

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