Match Info

Date: 4 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Haines A. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Doncaster Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.4	2.62
	2.6	3.25	2.6
	2.55	3.4	2.6
	2.55	3.25	2.6
	2.65	3.37	2.79
	2.62	3.25	2.6
	2.67	3.5	2.67	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.65)	3.33 ↑ (3.23)	2.64 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
36.2%

Draw
28.2%

Doncaster Rovers
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

28.9%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

29.1%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Doncaster Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Doncaster Rovers aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.6%	34.5%	37.9%

Hartlepool United - Doncaster Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 8 - 27.6%). Doncaster will win (votes: 11 - 37.9%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 34.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Doncaster: 20.2% – 55.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs)).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (30.24%), has project points - 41, has currently - 3, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Doncaster has the most likely position - 2 (11.04%), has project points - 77, has currently - 14, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (31%), has a chance of promoted (39%), has a small chance of win league (10%).

This event has very small quality 8, importance 43, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Hartlepool is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Doncaster is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Doncaster have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
30.09.22	Mansfield Town - Hartlepool United	2:2 ✺
24.09.22	Hartlepool United - Gillingham	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	1:0 penalties ✺
English League Two
17.09.22	Sutton United - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
13.09.22	Hartlepool United - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTLLT
- Doncaster Rovers
English League Two
01.10.22	Rochdale - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
24.09.22	Doncaster Rovers - Crawley Town	4:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Lincoln City - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
English League Two
17.09.22	Doncaster Rovers - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
13.09.22	Barrow - Doncaster Rovers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
06.05.17	Hartlepool United - Doncaster Rovers	2:1
19.11.16	Doncaster Rovers - Hartlepool United	2:1
English League One
02.03.13	Doncaster Rovers - Hartlepool United	3:0
13.10.12	Hartlepool United - Doncaster Rovers	1:1

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