Match Info

Date: 13 September 2022, Tuesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Coy M. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.2	2.75
	2.6	3.1	2.65
	2.7	3.15	2.6
	2.55	3.15	2.7
	2.71	3.19	2.85
	2.6	3.2	2.7
	2.65	3.38	2.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (3.01)	3.2 ↑ (3.1)	2.72 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
35.8%

Draw
29.5%

Crewe Alexandra
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

30.1%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

31.1%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hartlepool United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crewe Alexandra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	26.7%	26.7%

Hartlepool United - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Crewe will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartlepool: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (30.24%), has project points - 41, has currently - 3, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Crewe has the most likely position - 9 (5.62%), has project points - 64, has currently - 11, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (19%), has a small chance of promoted (12%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
03.09.22	Colchester United - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	2:0 ✺
English League Two
27.08.22	Leyton Orient - Hartlepool United	4:2 ✺
20.08.22	Hartlepool United - Bradford City	1:3 ✺
16.08.22	Hartlepool United - Tranmere Rovers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWLLT
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
03.09.22	Crewe Alexandra - Stevenage Borough	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Bolton Wanderers - Crewe Alexandra	4:1 ✺
English League Two
27.08.22	Bradford City - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
20.08.22	Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
16.08.22	Crewe Alexandra - Sutton United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
10.08.21	Hartlepool United - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
English League Two
28.02.17	Hartlepool United - Crewe Alexandra	4:0
16.08.16	Crewe Alexandra - Hartlepool United	3:3
English League One
26.02.13	Hartlepool United - Crewe Alexandra	3:0
06.10.12	Crewe Alexandra - Hartlepool United	2:1

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