Match Info

Date: 24 September 2022, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Hair N. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.75
	2.75	3	2.6
	2.75	3	2.7
	2.7	3	2.65
	2.88	3.1	2.76
	2.75	3.1	2.6
	2.81	3.3	2.69	Watch
	2.7	3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.5)	3.08 ↓ (3.16)	2.68 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
34.1%

Draw
30.7%

Gillingham
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

29.4%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

29.6%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Gillingham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	43.7%	25%

Hartlepool United - Gillingham Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Gillingham will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 43.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (31.22%), has project points - 40, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Gillingham has the most likely position - 21 (8.15%), has project points - 52, has currently - 6, has a small chance of relegated (14%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 6, importance 36, small match rating 21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Hartlepool is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gillingham is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Hartlepool could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	1:0 penalties ✺
English League Two
17.09.22	Sutton United - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
13.09.22	Hartlepool United - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
03.09.22	Colchester United - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLTTW
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
17.09.22	Gillingham - Mansfield Town	0:2 ✺
13.09.22	Grimsby Town - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
03.09.22	Gillingham - Swindon Town	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
31.08.22	Charlton Athletic - Gillingham	3:0 ✺
English League Two
27.08.22	Carlisle United - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
21.11.18	Hartlepool United - Gillingham	3:4 ET
10.11.18	Gillingham - Hartlepool United	0:0

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