Match Info

National League - Round 40

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Morecambe		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.5	2.25
	2.75	3.4	2.15
	2.72	3.45	2.35
	2.79	3.63	2.4
	2.69	3.69	2.34	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.3
	2.67	3.36	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (3.86)	3.49 ↑ (3.47)	2.3 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
33.6%

Draw
26.3%

Hartlepool United
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

26.5%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

26%

50.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Morecambe's performance.

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hartlepool United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Morecambe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hartlepool United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Morecambe - Hartlepool United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hartlepool (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hartlepool United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartlepool (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Blackman J. (G) 16. Hogan L. 5. Dean H. 33. Akindileni T. 2. Payne L. 17. Lewis P. 23. Ogwuru D. 8. Azeez M. 7. Edwards G. (C) 36. Nolan J. 42. Popov C.	23. Hayes N. (G) 2. Benn J. 5. Kouogun M. 15. Hunter J. 3. John C. 14. Sheron N. (C) 18. Miley J. 28. Daly M. 37. Sinclair T. 35. Caton C. 19. Reid A.
Substitutes
41. Boney M. (G) 28. Fogarty T. 12. Jameson K. 20. Sangare M. 24. Songo'o Y. 32. Thomas G. 18. Tollitt B.	10. Campbell A. 17. Folarin S. 9. Johnson D. 39. Okike C. 27. Oliver V. 40. Smith A. (G) 38. Walker B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Edwards G. ⚽, Popov C. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Caton C. ⚽,
44', Azeez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
60', 2 - 1, Nolan J. ⚽,
72', Ogwuru D. ↓, Sangare M. ↑,
72', Azeez M. ↓, Thomas G. ↑,
75', 2 - 2, Reid A. ⚽, Sinclair T. (A),
76', Dean H. 🟨,
78', Payne L. ↓, Fogarty T. ↑,
80', Daly M. ↓, Campbell A. ↑,
80', Caton C. ↓, Folarin S. ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Reid A. ⚽,
89', Reid A. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,
90+1', Edwards G. ↓, Jameson K. ↑,
90+1', Akindileni T. ↓, Tollitt B. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morecambe won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Hartlepool has had a series of home games.

Hartlepool is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Morecambe won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:20. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Morecambe won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of English National League for now

Hartlepool: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12:19	-7	12

Last Results with these Odds

Hartlepool United - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.74%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English National League
21.03.26	Yeovil Town - Morecambe	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Morecambe - Braintree Town	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Sutton United - Morecambe	0:5 ✺
03.03.26	Wealdstone - Morecambe	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Morecambe - York City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LTWWL
- Hartlepool United
English National League
21.03.26	Hartlepool United - Eastleigh	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Truro City - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Hartlepool United - Halifax Town	0:1 ✺
03.03.26	Hartlepool United - Sutton United	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
04.11.25	Hartlepool United - Morecambe	1:1
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	1:0 penalties
05.10.21	Hartlepool United - Morecambe	3:2 penalties
English FA Cup
04.11.17	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	3:0
English League Two
08.04.17	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	1:1
30.12.16	Hartlepool United - Morecambe	3:2
09.04.16	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	2:5

Morecambe - Hartlepool United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide