Match Info

Date: 25 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Handley D. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Salford City

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.2
	3.3	3.2	2.15
	3.45	3.2	2.15
	3.25	3.2	2.16
	3.43	3.36	2.25
	3.4	3.2	2.15
	3.42	3.42	2.22	Watch
	3.25	3.2	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↓ (3.67)	3.26 ↑ (3.23)	2.18 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
28%

Draw
28.9%

Salford City
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

28.4%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

27.6%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Salford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salford City than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.7%	13.6%	63.6%

Hartlepool United - Salford City Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Salford will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Salford: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (37.05%), has project points - 39, has currently - 9, has a good chance of relegated (55%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Salford has the most likely position - 2 (12.46%), has project points - 79, has currently - 24, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (36%), has a chance of promoted (45%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

This event has very small quality 8, importance 50, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 1.

Hartlepool is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Salford is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Salford will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
22.10.22	Swindon Town - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Hartlepool United - Everton U21	0:6 ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	Harrogate Town - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
08.10.22	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
04.10.22	Hartlepool United - Doncaster Rovers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLW
- Salford City
English League Two
22.10.22	Salford City - Stockport County	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Rochdale - Salford City	2:3 penalties ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	Salford City - Bradford City	0:1 ✺
08.10.22	Northampton Town - Salford City	0:1 ✺
01.10.22	Salford City - Grimsby Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
02.04.22	Hartlepool United - Salford City	0:2
16.10.21	Salford City - Hartlepool United	1:0
English FA Cup
07.11.20	Salford City - Hartlepool United	2:0 ET
English National League
27.04.19	Hartlepool United - Salford City	3:2
25.09.18	Salford City - Hartlepool United	3:0
English FA Cup
15.12.15	Hartlepool United - Salford City	2:0 ET
04.12.15	Salford City - Hartlepool United	1:1

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