Match Info

National League - Round 35

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.2
	2.9	3.4	2.05
	3.05	3.4	2.18
	3.11	3.41	2.3
	3.08	3.45	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.15
	3.02	3.22	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (3.01)	3.35 ↓ (3.39)	2.18 (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
30.3%

Draw
27.5%

Carlisle United
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

27.2%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

26.2%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The chances for Carlisle United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Hartlepool United - Carlisle United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartlepool (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Carlisle (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Users Predictions: Carlisle United will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Hayes N. (G) 2. Benn J. 5. Kouogun M. 4. Parkes T. (C) 3. John C. 14. Sheron N. 15. Hunter J. 18. Miley J. 28. Daly M. 37. Sinclair T. 19. Reid A.	1. Breeze G. (G) 18. Ellis J. 26. Mugabi B. 5. Feeney M. (C) 12. Galvin R. 37. Macadam H. 20. Gilliead A. 7. Ajiboye D. 16. Wearne S. 38. Conn-Clarke C. 29. Armstrong L.
Substitutes
10. Campbell A. 17. Folarin S. 7. Holohan G. 9. Johnson D. 39. Okike C. 27. Oliver V. 40. Smith A. (G)	3. Harper C. 9. Kelly G. 10. Linney R. 13. Mair A. (G) 30. Parker H. 4. Thomas T. 23. Wyke Ch.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Sinclair T. ⚽, Parkes T. (A),
14', Macadam H. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', 2 - 0, Reid A. ⚽, Daly M. (A),
53', Conn-Clarke C. ↓, Linney R. ↑,
53', Ajiboye D. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
59', Macadam H. 🟨,
68', Ellis J. 🟨,
71', Sinclair T. 🟨,
72', Daly M. ↓, Campbell A. ↑,
72', Miley J. ↓, Holohan G. ↑,
72', Reid A. ↓, Folarin S. ↑,
76', Sinclair T. ↓, Okike C. ↑,
77', 3 - 0, Okike C. ⚽,
80', 3 - 1, Kelly G. ⚽, Feeney M. (A),
82', Ellis J. ↓, Thomas T. ↑,
82', Mugabi B. ↓, Parker H. ↑,
90+2', Sheron N. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 0.

Hartlepool has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Carlisle is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Hartlepool has had a series of away games.

Carlisle is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:33. (average 1.1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartlepool won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 1:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23:20	3	17
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12:19	-7	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
21.02.26	Solihull Moors - Hartlepool United	3:4 ✺
11.02.26	York City - Hartlepool United	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Tamworth - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Hartlepool United - Aldershot Town	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Brackley Town - Hartlepool United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTLT
- Carlisle United
English National League
21.02.26	Carlisle United - Yeovil Town	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
10.02.26	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Rochdale - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Carlisle United - Altrincham	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
01.10.25	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1
English League Two
24.01.23	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1
08.10.22	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:3
18.01.22	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	0:0
English EFL Trophy
31.08.21	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	4:3 penalties
English League Two
28.08.21	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	2:1
14.04.17	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:1

Hartlepool United - Carlisle United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide