Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)


	Swindon Town		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	1.66	4	4.75
	1.7	3.75	4.6
	1.66	3.9	4.75
	1.68	3.8	4.5
	1.72	3.89	5.07
	1.67	3.8	4.75
	1.72	3.98	4.95	Watch
	1.67	3.75	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.68)	3.86 ↓ (4.04)	4.73 ↓ (5.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
55.8%

Draw
24.4%

Hartlepool United
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

23.8%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

23.4%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	5.9%	29.4%

Swindon Town - Hartlepool United Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Hartlepool will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swindon: 42% – 87.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 8 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Swindon has the most likely position - 7 (8.4%), has project points - 73, has currently - 23, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a chance of promoted (26%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (30.88%), has project points - 40, has currently - 9, has a chance of relegated (49%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 8, importance 36, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Swindon is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hartlepool is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Swindon is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Swindon won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Swindon won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	3:0 ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	Swindon Town - Colchester United	1:0 ✺
08.10.22	Stevenage Borough - Swindon Town	2:0 ✺
04.10.22	Swindon Town - Newport County	1:0 ✺
01.10.22	Swindon Town - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWL
- Hartlepool United
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Hartlepool United - Everton U21	0:6 ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	Harrogate Town - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
08.10.22	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
04.10.22	Hartlepool United - Doncaster Rovers	2:1 ✺
30.09.22	Mansfield Town - Hartlepool United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
23.04.22	Hartlepool United - Swindon Town	0:3
23.11.21	Swindon Town - Hartlepool United	3:1
English League One
09.02.13	Swindon Town - Hartlepool United	1:1
18.08.12	Hartlepool United - Swindon Town	N/A

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