Match Info

1. Lig - Round 22

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Mersin Stadyumu (Mersin)

Referee: Gunduz Y. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Hatayspor		Umraniyespor

	1	X	2
	13	6.5	1.14	Watch
	15.59	7.13	1.13
	13.1	7.74	1.15
	11.4	6.84	1.2	Watch
	13	7	1.17
	13.7	7.3	1.11	Watch
	12	6.66	1.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.11 ↑ (6.34)	7.02 ↑ (5.06)	1.15 ↓ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hatayspor
7%

Draw
13.1%

Umraniyespor
79.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.7%

18.4%

66.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14%

17.6%

70.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hatayspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hatayspor's form might have worsened.

Umraniyespor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Umraniyespor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hatayspor than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hatayspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Umraniyespor than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Umraniyespor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Hatayspor - Umraniyespor Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Hatayspor will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Umraniyespor will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Umraniyespor: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.25 - Umraniyespor (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +2 - Hatayspor (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Hatayspor (votes: 2 - 40%). Umraniyespor (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Saricali D. (G) 33. Aydemir E. 97. Sen M. 95. Buz Y. A. 13. Aksoy E. 31. Matur O. 19. Aksu C. B. 66. Abdulkadir A. 20. Yildiz A. 18. Durmushan U. 9. Aksoy D.	35. Topaloglu C. (G) 81. Bulbul A. T. 53. Oksuz B. 44. Glumac T. (C) 75. Kaplan E. 20. Babacan A. 88. Djokanovic A. 17. Hoti E. 77. Benny 9. Celik B. 11. Ekincier B.
Substitutes
32. Ahmed A. 65. Alkan V. 24. Bayam A. 45. Cinar Baytar M. 78. Daduk E. (G) 30. Guler E. 83. Ozenir A. 72. Tog B. 70. Tuna Y. (G) 77. Uzel B.	1. Adiyaman U. (G) 5. Aktas K. 10. Bardhi J. 8. Goksu S. 14. Kocaturk Y. 12. Kosoko T. 92. Ozdemir T. 30. Sas Y. D. 27. Soukou C. 70. Yildirim O.
Coaches
Irtegun B.	Albayrak T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Celik B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Babacan A. ↓, Bardhi J. ↑,
60', Hoti E. ↓, Goksu S. ↑,
63', Bardhi J. 🟨,
63', Djokanovic A. 🟨,
71', Abdulkadir A. ↓, Guler E. ↑,
73', Celik B. ↓, Kosoko T. ↑,
74', Ekincier B. ↓, Soukou C. ↑,
81', Aksu C. B. ↓, Tog B. ↑,
85', Yildiz A. ↓, Uzel B. ↑,
85', Matur O. ↓, Alkan V. ↑,
90', 0 - 2, Benny ⚽, Goksu S. (A),
90+1', Djokanovic A. ↓, Aktas K. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hatayspor won 1.

Hatayspor is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Umraniyespor has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hatayspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Umraniyespor is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Hatayspor: Yilmaz B. (Red Card)

There will not play in Umraniyespor: Saitoglu Y. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Hatayspor: Yildiz A. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hatayspor won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hatayspor won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Umraniyespor	8	1	3	4	6:9	-3	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hatayspor
Turkish First League
17.01.26	Hatayspor - Manisa FK	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Keçiörengücü - Hatayspor	5:0 ✺
27.12.25	Vanspor - Hatayspor	4:0 ✺
21.12.25	Hatayspor - Serik Belediyespor	1:1 ✺
15.12.25	Sakaryaspor - Hatayspor	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLLTL
- Umraniyespor
Turkish First League
18.01.26	Umraniyespor - Serik Belediyespor	5:0 ✺
12.01.26	Manisa FK - Umraniyespor	1:0 ✺
28.12.25	Keçiörengücü - Umraniyespor	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Umraniyespor - Adana Demirspor	5:0 ✺
14.12.25	Vanspor - Umraniyespor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
24.08.25	Umraniyespor - Hatayspor	1:1
Turkish Super League
03.01.23	Umraniyespor - Hatayspor	2:2
Turkish First League
15.03.20	Hatayspor - Umraniyespor	2:0
10.11.19	Umraniyespor - Hatayspor	0:0
07.04.19	Umraniyespor - Hatayspor	0:0
04.11.18	Hatayspor - Umraniyespor	0:1
Turkish Second League White Group
23.03.16	Umraniyespor - Hatayspor	1:0

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