Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen)

Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra


	Heerenveen		Utrecht

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.82	3.7	4.25
	1.88	3.73	4.41
	1.83	3.7	4.26	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4
	1.87	3.69	4.22	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.14)	3.62 ↑ (3.45)	4.24 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heerenveen
51.5%

Draw
26.2%

Utrecht
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

27%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

26.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heerenveen's performance.

Utrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Utrecht might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heerenveen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Utrecht could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	7.4%	18.5%

Heerenveen - Utrecht Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Heerenveen will win (votes: 19 - 73.1%). Utrecht will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 56.1% – 90.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Utrecht (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heerenveen will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Heerenveen (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Utrecht (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 3. Willemsen M. 19. Zagaritis V. 7. Rivera M. 16. Linday M. 6. van Overeem J. 20. Trenskow J. 8. Brouwers L. (C) 10. Meerveld R. 9. Vente D.	1. Barkas V. (G) 23. Vesterlund N. 40. Didden M. 3. van der Hoorn M. (C) 8. Bozdogan C. 27. Engwanda A. 21. Zechiel G. 77. Alarcon A. 20. de Wit D. 55. Murkin D. 11. Karlsson J.
Substitutes
35. Ahmed I. 31. Bakker N. (G) 36. Courtens N. 15. Egbring M. 50. Gurbuz E. 17. Hopland N. 38. Mulder I. 44. Noppert A. (G) 11. Oyen L. 28. Petrov H. 26. van Axel Dongen A.	38. Agougil O. 15. Blake A. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 10. Cathline Y. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 50. Plantinga V. 22. Rodriguez M. 18. Stepanov A. 6. van den Berg D. 24. Viergever N.
Coaches
Veldman R.	Jans R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Trenskow J. ⚽, Braude O. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Willemsen M. 🟨,
52', Didden M. 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Karlsson J. ⚽, Alarcon A. (A),
64', Karlsson J. ↓, Cathline Y. ↑,
64', Bozdogan C. ↓, Agougil O. ↑,
68', Rivera M. ↓, Oyen L. ↑,
72', Alarcon A. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
85', Zechiel G. ↓, Stepanov A. ↑,
86', Meerveld R. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,
89', Cathline Y. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 1.

Heerenveen has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Utrecht has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Utrecht may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Heerenveen is the team to beat.

There will not play in Heerenveen: Kersten S. (Yellow Cards) Smans L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Utrecht: Alarcon A. (Inactive) Eerdhuijzen M. (Injury) Eppink M. (Foot Injury) Jensen V. (Knee Injury) Karlsson J. (Inactive) Min D. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Heerenveen: Kersten S. (Injury) Petrov H. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:35. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Heerenveen won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.4:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11:24	-13	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
18.01.26	Heerenveen - Groningen	0:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
15.01.26	Heerenveen - Waalwijk	3:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Heerenveen - Feyenoord	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
06.01.26	Hoffenheim - Heerenveen	Canceled ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
20.12.25	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWT?W
- FC Utrecht
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Celtic - Utrecht	4:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
25.01.26	Utrecht - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Utrecht - Genk	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.01.26	Volendam - Utrecht	2:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
13.01.26	Utrecht - Twente	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
28.09.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:2
30.03.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:0
17.08.24	Heerenveen - Utrecht	1:1
07.04.24	Heerenveen - Utrecht	2:3
20.08.23	Utrecht - Heerenveen	0:2
04.02.23	Utrecht - Heerenveen	1:0
29.10.22	Heerenveen - Utrecht	1:2

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