Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 20

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht)

Referee: Blank E. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra


	Utrecht		Sparta Rotterdam

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.8	Watch
	2.02	3.55	3.55
	2.04	3.6	3.79
	2	3.6	3.63	Watch
	2	3.3	3.5
	2.05	3.58	3.79	Watch
	2	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.75)	3.5 ↓ (3.57)	3.67 ↓ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrecht
47.1%

Draw
27%

Sparta Rotterdam
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

26.2%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

27.8%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Utrecht's form might have worsened.

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sparta Rotterdam's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Utrecht, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sparta Rotterdam, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Utrecht - Sparta Rotterdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Utrecht will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%). Sparta Rotterdam will win (votes: 2 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Utrecht: 38.6% – 78%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Utrecht (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Sparta Rotterdam (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.5 - Sparta Rotterdam (1.81) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Utrecht (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Sparta Rotterdam (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barkas V. (C) 2. Horemans S. 40. Didden M. 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 16. El Karouani S. 27. Engwanda A. 8. Bozdogan C. 10. Cathline Y. 20. de Wit D. 11. Karlsson J. 22. Rodriguez M.	1. Drommel J. (G) 2. Martes L. 3. Young M. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Quintero T. 8. Kitolano J. 6. Baas J. 10. Santos A. 7. van Bergen M. 9. Lauritsen T. 11. Mito S.
Substitutes
38. Agougil O. 15. Blake A. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 5. Finnsson K. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 55. Murkin D. 6. van den Berg D. 3. van der Hoorn M. 23. Vesterlund N. 24. Viergever N. 21. Zechiel G.	17. Bakari S. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 21. Clement P. 13. de Guzman J. 15. Kleijn M. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 22. Ltaief S. 16. Roaldsoy A. 12. Sambo S. 19. Thorisson N. 18. Toornstra J. 14. Velthuis T.
Coaches
Jans R.	Steijn M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Mito S. ⚽, van Bergen M. (A),
13', Eerdhuijzen M. ↓, Viergever N. ↑,
28', Martins Indi B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Baas J. ↓, Clement P. ↑,
46', Engwanda A. ↓, Zechiel G. ↑,
47', Martes L. 🟨,
62', Young M. 🟨,
62', Karlsson J. ↓, Blake A. ↑,
81', Kitolano J. ↓, Roaldsoy A. ↑,
81', Martes L. ↓, Sambo S. ↑,
81', Santos A. ↓, Toornstra J. ↑,
82', Viergever N. ↓, Agougil O. ↑,
82', Horemans S. ↓, Vesterlund N. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 2.

Utrecht is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sparta Rotterdam is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sparta Rotterdam may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Utrecht could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Utrecht: Min D. (Injury)

There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: van Crooij V. (Injury)

There are questionable in Utrecht: Haller S. (Injury) Iqbal Z. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 43:17. (average 2.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Utrecht won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:9. (average 2.2:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11:24	-13	5

Last Results with these Odds

Utrecht - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.37%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Utrecht
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Utrecht - Genk	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.01.26	Volendam - Utrecht	2:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
13.01.26	Utrecht - Twente	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
21.12.25	Utrecht - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
17.12.25	FC Oss - Utrecht	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW
- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
18.01.26	Feyenoord - Sparta Rotterdam	3:4 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
15.01.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Volendam	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Heracles Almelo	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Volendam - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
18.12.25	Willem II - Sparta Rotterdam	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
17.08.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Utrecht	2:1
14.05.25	Utrecht - Sparta Rotterdam	1:1
03.11.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Utrecht	1:4
23.05.24	Utrecht - Sparta Rotterdam	3:1
12.05.24	Utrecht - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1
26.11.23	Sparta Rotterdam - Utrecht	1:2
04.06.23	Sparta Rotterdam - Utrecht	1:1 penalties

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