Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Asito Stadium (Almelo)

Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra


	Heracles Almelo		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.75	2	Watch
	3.45	3.7	2.02
	3.42	3.94	2.04
	3.43	3.83	2	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.95
	3.48	3.8	2.09	Watch
	3.4	3.75	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (3.08)	3.75 ↑ (3.65)	2.01 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
27.5%

Draw
25.3%

Heerenveen
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

25.7%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

24.2%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heerenveen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	17.6%	64.7%

Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Heerenveen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Jansink T. (G) 23. te Wierik M. 4. Mirani D. (C) 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 5. van der Kust D. 70. Hrustic A. 10. Bruns T. 7. Limbombe B. 73. Ould Chikh W. 8. Engels M. 19. Kulenovic L.	22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 3. Willemsen M. 19. Zagaritis V. 6. van Overeem J. 16. Linday M. 20. Trenskow J. 8. Brouwers L. (C) 10. Meerveld R. 9. Vente D.
Substitutes
39. Blokhuis S. 6. Cestic S. 1. de Keijzer F. (G) 30. Mantel R. (G) 28. Sambo G. 27. Tijink J. 17. van Gilst T. 3. Wieckhoff J. 13. Zamburek J.	35. Ahmed I. 31. Bakker N. (G) 5. Bochniewicz P. 36. Courtens N. 15. Egbring M. 50. Gurbuz E. 17. Hopland N. 44. Noppert A. (G) 28. Petrov H. 7. Rivera M. 27. Sejk V. 26. van Axel Dongen A.
Coaches
Faber E.	Veldman R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Vente D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
55', 0 - 1, Trenskow J. ⚽, Vente D. (A),
62', Kulenovic L. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
63', Meerveld R. ↓, Rivera M. ↑,
67', te Wierik M. 🟨,
73', Bruns T. ↓, Zamburek J. ↑,
77', 0 - 2, Zagaritis V. ⚽, Rivera M. (A),
79', Zagaritis V. ↓, Petrov H. ↑,
86', Kersten S. ↓, Sejk V. ↑,
86', Vente D. ↓, Hopland N. ↑,
87', Trenskow J. ↓, van Axel Dongen A. ↑,
90+5', 0 - 3, Rivera M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Heerenveen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Heerenveen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Heracles: Mesik I. (Yellow Cards) Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury) Scheperman S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Heerenveen: Smans L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:34. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1.4:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.25	Heracles Almelo - Hoogeveen	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
13.12.25	PSV Eindhoven - Heracles Almelo	4:3 ✺
06.12.25	Heracles Almelo - Telstar	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Fortuna Sittard - Heracles Almelo	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Heracles Almelo - Go Ahead Eagles	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLTTW
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch KNVB Beker
17.12.25	Feyenoord - Heerenveen	2:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.12.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Heerenveen	0:3 ✺
06.12.25	Heerenveen - PSV Eindhoven	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Zwolle - Heerenveen	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.4 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
15.03.25	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	1:1
27.09.24	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	2:1
14.04.24	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	0:2
28.10.23	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	3:0
18.03.22	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	2:0
04.12.21	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	0:1
23.01.21	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	1:0

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