Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 23

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Nijhuis B. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra
Turkey	Exxen


	Willem II		Groningen

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.88	2.9	Watch
	2.78	2.82	2.98	Watch
	2.84	2.93	3.03
	2.79	2.81	2.98	Watch
	2.7	2.88	2.9
	2.82	2.94	2.97	Watch
	2.78	2.82	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.25)	2.87 ↓ (3.32)	2.96 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
34.4%

Draw
33.3%

Groningen
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

28.2%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

27.2%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Willem II's form might have worsened.

Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Willem II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Willem II - Groningen Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Groningen will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon T. (G) 25. Tirpan M. 30. Behounek R. 4. Schouten E. (C) 33. St. Jago T. 6. Lambert B. 8. Bosch J. 14. Sandra C. 16. Meerveld R. 21. Ahmed Fatah A. 9. Vaesen K.	1. Vaessen E. (G) 5. Rente M. (C) 4. Ekdal H. 3. Blokzijl T. 2. Prins W. 18. de Jonge T. 6. Resink S. 20. Seuntjens M. 10. Valente L. 16. Kwakman D. 26. van Bergen T.
Substitutes
18. Bokila J. 7. Doodeman N. 17. Joosten P. 77. Kaygin D. 11. Kehrer E. 22. Nizet R. 15. Pivas M. 41. Schut M. (G) 5. Sigurgeirsson R. 19. Sylla Y. 24. van den Berg C. (G)	7. Bacuna L. 11. Emeran N. 21. Jurjus H. (G) 36. Mariani M. 31. Meijster J. (G) 27. Mendes R. 33. Mortensen A. 25. Oosting T. 29. Postema R. 14. Schreuders J. 22. Stam F. 9. Willumsson B.
Coaches
Maes P.	Lukkien D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
5', 0 - 1, Kwakman D. ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, Resink S. ⚽, Valente L. (A),
21', 0 - 3, de Jonge T. ⚽,
45', Lambert B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lambert B. ↓, Kaygin D. ↑,
49', 1 - 3, Bosch J. ⚽, Sandra C. (A),
59', Kwakman D. ↓, Schreuders J. ↑,
65', Vaesen K. ↓, Bokila J. ↑,
71', Seuntjens M. ↓, Postema R. ↑,
74', Sandra C. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,
74', Schouten E. ↓, Joosten P. ↑,
86', de Jonge T. ↓, Bacuna L. ↑,
86', Prins W. ↓, Stam F. ↑,
86', van Bergen T. ↓, Willumsson B. ↑,
87', Ahmed Fatah A. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 12 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Willem II won 0.

Willem II is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Groningen is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Groningen: Blokzijl T. (Red Card) Peersman M. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Willem II: Mathieu D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Groningen: Turay F. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Willem II won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 19:28 (average 1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Willem II won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15:18 (average 1.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
08.02.25	PSV Eindhoven - Willem II	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Willem II - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
26.01.25	Waalwijk - Willem II	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Willem II - Feyenoord	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Twente - Willem II	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 TLLTL
- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
08.02.25	Groningen - NEC Nijmegen	2:1 ✺
02.02.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Groningen	1:0 ✺
28.01.25	Heracles Almelo - Groningen	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Groningen - Heerenveen	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Groningen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
30.11.24	Groningen - Willem II	2:0
Dutch Eerste Divisie
26.04.24	Willem II - Groningen	1:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.12.23	Willem II - Groningen	1:3
Dutch Eerste Divisie
27.08.23	Groningen - Willem II	0:0
Dutch Eredivisie
26.02.22	Groningen - Willem II	1:0
18.09.21	Willem II - Groningen	2:1
14.01.21	Willem II - Groningen	2:3

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