Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 14

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: MAC³PARK Stadion (Zwolle)

Referee: Teuben S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Zwolle		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.9	1.85	Watch
	3.9	3.9	1.85
	4.07	4	1.9
	2.92	3.68	2.25	Watch
	3.65	4.04	1.97	Watch
	3.8	4	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (2.8)	3.92 ↑ (3.65)	1.94 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zwolle
26.1%

Draw
24.4%

Heerenveen
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

25.7%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

25.2%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zwolle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Zwolle's form might have worsened.

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Heerenveen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Zwolle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heerenveen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	10.4%	85.4%

Zwolle - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Zwolle will win (votes: 2 - 4.3%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 40 - 87%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 77.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Heerenveen (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heerenveen will win (26 of 27 users predict this - 96.3%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Zwolle (votes: 1 - 3.6%). Heerenveen (votes: 27 - 96.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. de Graaff T. (G) 3. Aertssen O. 28. Graves S. 6. Gooijer T. 2. Floranus S. 25. Oosting T. 30. Thomas R. (C) 35. Monteiro J. 7. Shoretire S. 10. Kostons K. 22. de Rooij K.	22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 3. Willemsen M. 19. Zagaritis V. 8. Brouwers L. (C) 6. van Overeem J. 20. Trenskow J. 10. Meerveld R. 7. Rivera M. 9. Vente D.
Substitutes
48. Bakker L. (G) 29. Buitink T. 8. Buurmeester Z. 19. Faberski J. 34. Fichtinger N. 11. Mbayo D. 26. Pereira da Gama J. 20. Reiziger G. 42. Ruward D. 41. Verduin D. (G)	35. Ahmed I. 31. Bakker N. (G) 5. Bochniewicz P. 15. Egbring M. 50. Gurbuz E. 17. Hopland N. 16. Linday M. 44. Noppert A. (G) 28. Petrov H. 33. Rijssel J. 37. Schaken K. 27. Sejk V.
Coaches
Van Der Vegt H.	Veldman R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
28', 1 - 0, Oosting T. ⚽, Kostons K. (A),
34', de Rooij K. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Meerveld R. ⚽, Brouwers L. (A),
40', 2 - 1, Shoretire S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Graves S. 🟨,
65', Willemsen M. 🟨,
67', Oosting T. ↓, Buurmeester Z. ↑,
70', Braude O. ↓, Egbring M. ↑,
70', Rivera M. ↓, Sejk V. ↑,
70', Meerveld R. ↓, Linday M. ↑,
77', Egbring M. 🟨,
80', Willemsen M. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,
88', Trenskow J. ↓, Bochniewicz P. ↑,
88', Monteiro J. ↓, Reiziger G. ↑,
89', de Rooij K. ↓, Mbayo D. ↑,
89', Shoretire S. ↓, Faberski J. ↑,
90+6', Faberski J. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Heerenveen is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Zwolle: Garcia MacNulty A. (Red Card) Schendelaar J. (Injury) Velanas O. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Zwolle: Lagsir S. (Inactive) van der Haar D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Heerenveen: Smans L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Zwolle won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.3:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Heerenveen - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.69%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PEC Zwolle
Dutch Eredivisie
23.11.25	Groningen - Zwolle	2:2 ✺
08.11.25	Zwolle - Sparta Rotterdam	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Heracles Almelo - Zwolle	8:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
28.10.25	Helmond Sport - Zwolle	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
25.10.25	Zwolle - NEC Nijmegen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWLWT
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
23.11.25	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Fortuna Sittard - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
28.10.25	VVV-Venlo - Heerenveen	0:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.10.25	Heerenveen - NAC Breda	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.10.25	Heerenveen - Zwolle	4:1
Dutch Eredivisie
16.02.25	Zwolle - Heerenveen	1:1
06.10.24	Heerenveen - Zwolle	1:1
03.03.24	Heerenveen - Zwolle	2:0
13.01.24	Zwolle - Heerenveen	2:2
Club Friendly
15.07.22	Zwolle - Heerenveen	0:1
24.03.22	Heerenveen - Zwolle	1:0

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