Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Voith-Arena (Heidenheim)

Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)

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	Heidenheim		Köln

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.3
	2.68	3.45	2.58	Watch
	2.95	3.58	2.31
	2.82	3.49	2.46	Watch
	2.63	3.3	2.5
	2.82	3.49	2.57	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (2.92)	3.45 ↓ (3.64)	2.46 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heidenheim
33.8%

Draw
27.5%

Köln
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

26.1%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

25.7%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heidenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Köln has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Köln than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	46.7%	36.7%

Heidenheim - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Heidenheim will win (votes: 5 - 16.7%). Köln will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 46.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.8% – 64.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Heidenheim (votes: 1 - 20%). Köln (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH 0 - Köln (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Heidenheim (1.52) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Heidenheim (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Heidenheim (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Köln (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Ramaj D. (G) 23. Traore O. H. 6. Mainka P. (C) 4. Siersleben T. 19. Fohrenbach J. 3. Schoppner J. 30. Dorsch N. 16. Niehues J. 31. Conteh S. 18. Pieringer M. 22. Ibrahimovic A.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 28. Sebulonsen S. 6. Martel E. 22. Simpson-Pusey J. 29. Thielmann J. 5. Krauss T. 8. Huseinbasic D. 17. Castro-Montes A. 16. Kaminski J. 9. Ache R. 40. Schenten F.
Substitutes
21. Beck A. 2. Busch M. 40. Feller F. (G) 5. Gimber B. 17. Honsak M. 29. Kaufmann M. 20. Kerber L. 9. Schimmer S. 38. Wagner Y.	30. Bulter M. 13. El Mala S. 18. Johannesson I. 44. Kobbing M. (G) 32. Lund K. 37. Maina L. 38. Niang Y. 39. Ozkacar C. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Schmidt F.	Kwasniok L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Pieringer M. ⚽, Schoppner J. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Martel E. ⚽, Castro-Montes A. (A),
21', Martel E. 🟨,
26', 2 - 1, Niehues J. ⚽,
44', Ibrahimovic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Huseinbasic D. ↓, El Mala S. ↑,
48', 2 - 2, El Mala S. ⚽, Castro-Montes A. (A),
52', Fohrenbach J. 🟨,
60', Schoppner J. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
60', Ibrahimovic A. ↓, Honsak M. ↑,
62', Schenten F. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
75', Castro-Montes A. ↓, Lund K. ↑,
75', Thielmann J. ↓, Bulter M. ↑,
78', Pieringer M. ↓, Schimmer S. ↑,
78', Traore O. H. ↓, Busch M. ↑,
83', Conteh S. ↓, Kaufmann M. ↑,
90+2', Ache R. ↓, Niang Y. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 11).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Köln may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Heidenheim: Behrens H. (Injury) Feller F. (Knee Injury) Kolle A. (Illness) Paqarada L. (Knee Injury) Zivzivadze B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Köln: Hubers T. (Knee Injury) Kilian L. (Knee Injury) Schmied J. (Thigh Injury) Waldschmidt L. (Illness) van den Berg R. (Red Card)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Heidenheim won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Heidenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Heidenheim - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
13.12.25	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Heidenheim - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Union Berlin - Heidenheim	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LLWWL
- 1. FC Köln
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Lugano - Köln	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Werder Bremen - Köln	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.05.24	Heidenheim - Köln	4:1
13.01.24	Köln - Heidenheim	1:1
German 2 Bundesliga
07.04.19	Heidenheim - Köln	0:2
27.10.18	Köln - Heidenheim	1:1

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