Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 5

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Asito Stadium (Almelo)

Referee: Wiersma W. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Heracles Almelo		De Graafschap

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.75	5.25	Watch
	1.49	4.60	5.00
	1.48	4.55	5.4	Watch
	1.49	4.94	5.5
	1.49	4.93	5.26	Watch
	1.47	4.85	5.4
	1.48	4.75	5.33	Watch
	1.46	4.7	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.61)	4.76 ↑ (4.25)	5.27 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
62.9%

Draw
19.5%

De Graafschap
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

21.5%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

20.4%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heracles Almelo's performance.

De Graafschap has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Heracles Almelo - De Graafschap Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Heracles (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Heracles Almelo will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. de Keijzer F. (G) 15. Vicente D. 4. Mirani D. 14. Wrusch M. 25. Manny 32. Scheperman S. (C) 5. van der Kust D. 7. Abbas C. 17. van Gilst T. 18. Hauswirth M. 27. N'djoli J.	1. Wieggers T. (C) 16. Martens N. 3. Besselink R. 15. Kok T. 21. Symons K. 24. Meerstadt J. 8. Warmerdam D. 27. Ahmeti N. 20. Finocchiaro G. 9. Kania J. 11. Mero T.
Substitutes
2. Benita M. 10. Bruns T. 35. Bultman S. 80. Fofana F. 16. Jansink T. (G) 9. Poppler V. 23. te Wierik M. 6. Tomic D. 26. van Kaam D. 30. van Oorschot D. 38. Wijnreder J. 33. Zeevalkink L. (G)	14. Bolk G. 10. de Jong F. 18. Eijken D. 32. Grotenhuis T. 34. Hartgers N. 23. Jonkers R. (G) 17. Kaninda N. 40. Kwint K. 22. Reverson P. (G) 28. Triep J. 7. van Zijl B. 2. Wieckhoff J.
Coaches
Heilmann V.	Duivenvoorden T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, N'djoli J. ⚽, Abbas C. (A),
23', Wrusch M. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Abbas C. ⚽, Scheperman S. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Ahmeti N. ↓, van Zijl B. ↑,
62', Hauswirth M. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,
63', Wrusch M. ↓, te Wierik M. ↑,
63', Kania J. ↓, Kwint K. ↑,
63', Symons K. ↓, de Jong F. ↑,
66', Martens N. 🟨,
72', 3 - 0, van Gilst T. ⚽, Bruns T. (A),
73', Finocchiaro G. ↓, Triep J. ↑,
76', Abbas C. ↓, Tomic D. ↑,
79', Martens N. ↓, Wieckhoff J. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, N'djoli J. ⚽, Scheperman S. (A),
84', van der Kust D. ↓, Bultman S. ↑,
85', van Gilst T. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
86', Manny 🟨,
89', Wieggers T. 🟨,
90', 5 - 0, N'djoli J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 2.

Heracles is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

De Graafschap is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Heracles is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Heracles: Borges Sanches Y. (Knee Injury) Engels M. (Injury)

We predict that Heracles will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:16. (average 2.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 2.7:1.2).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Heracles: 36.1% De Graafschap: 0.81%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31:12	19	25
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eerste Divisie
30.08.26	FC Eindhoven - Heracles Almelo	1:3 ✺
24.08.26	Jong Utrecht - Heracles Almelo	1:6 ✺
14.08.26	Heracles Almelo - Den Bosch	3:2 ✺
07.08.26	VVV-Venlo - Heracles Almelo	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly
24.07.26	Heracles Almelo - Excelsior	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWL
- De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie
29.08.26	De Graafschap - Almere City	1:4 ✺
23.08.26	VVV-Venlo - De Graafschap	2:1 ✺
17.08.26	De Graafschap - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:5 ✺
09.08.26	Helmond Sport - De Graafschap	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	De Graafschap - Excelsior	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch KNVB Beker
16.01.25	De Graafschap - Heracles Almelo	0:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
07.04.23	De Graafschap - Heracles Almelo	5:3
07.10.22	Heracles Almelo - De Graafschap	3:2
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Heracles Almelo - De Graafschap	2:2
22.08.20	De Graafschap - Heracles Almelo	1:0
Dutch Eredivisie
30.03.19	De Graafschap - Heracles Almelo	1:2
21.09.18	Heracles Almelo - De Graafschap	4:0

Heracles Almelo - De Graafschap: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide