Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Bacher M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Karlsruher

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.75	Watch
	2.05	3.7	3.3
	2	3.55	3.3
	2.02	3.74	3.77
	1.06	11.68	28.57	Watch
	2.06	3.72	3.37	Watch
	2	3.65	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.16)	4.81 ↑ (3.74)	7.06 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
60.4%

Draw
23.5%

Karlsruher
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

25.4%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

25.7%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Holstein Kiel's performance.

Karlsruher has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Karlsruher might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-15.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Holstein Kiel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karlsruher than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karlsruher could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	25%	33.3%

Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Karlsruher will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Holstein Kiel: 8% – 64.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Karlsruher (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Karlsruher (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Holstein Kiel (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Karlsruher (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Karlsruher (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Krumrey J. (G) 26. Zec D. 5. Johansson C. 3. Komenda M. 11. Bernhardsson A. (C) 15. Davidsen K. 24. Knudsen M. 47. Tolkin J. 20. Kapralik A. 10. Therkelsen J. 25. Muller M.	1. Bernat C. (G) 22. Kobald C. 28. Franke M. 6. Rapp N. 2. Jung S. 16. Muller A. 20. Herold D. 7. Burnic D. 10. Wanitzek M. (C) 25. Egloff L. 24. Schleusener F.
Substitutes
19. Harres P. 6. Ivezic M. 13. Nekic I. 29. Niehoff N. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Schwab S. 7. Skrzybski S. 39. Wagner R. 1. Weiner T. (G)	4. Beifus M. 11. Forster P. 13. Fukuda S. 35. Geller R. 30. Himmelmann R. (G) 34. Kritzer M. 17. Opitz L. 36. Pinto Pedrosa R. 9. Simic R.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Eichner C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', Bernat C. 🟨,
12', Therkelsen J. (Pen),
25', 1 - 0, Kapralik A. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),
32', Egloff L. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Zec D. ⚽, Tolkin J. (A),
42', Knudsen M. 🟨,
45+3', Zec D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jung S. ↓, Pinto Pedrosa R. ↑,
46', Davidsen K. ↓, Wagner R. ↑,
50', Kobald C. 🟨,
55', Wagner R. 🟨,
62', Muller A. ↓, Forster P. ↑,
62', Kobald C. ↓, Beifus M. ↑,
66', Therkelsen J. ↓, Skrzybski S. ↑,
66', Muller M. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
69', Rapp N. ↓, Fukuda S. ↑,
69', Schleusener F. ↓, Simic R. ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Harres P. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),
74', Tolkin J. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
74', Komenda M. ↓, Ivezic M. ↑,
78', Ivezic M. 🟨,
86', Kapralik A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 4.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Holstein Kiel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Cvjetinovic M. (Ankle Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Karlsruher: Ben Farhat L. (Broken Leg) Sihlaroglu E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Karlsruher: Duhring M. N. (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Karlsruher - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 30.57%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
13.09.25	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Holstein Kiel - Hannover	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Greuther Fürth - Holstein Kiel	0:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Homburg - Holstein Kiel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTLWW
- Karlsruher SC
German 2 Bundesliga
13.09.25	Karlsruher - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Karlsruher	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Karlsruher - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Meuselwitz - Karlsruher	0:5 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
10.08.25	Hertha Berlin - Karlsruher	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
09.03.24	Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher	1:0
30.09.23	Karlsruher - Holstein Kiel	0:2
13.05.23	Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher	2:1
05.11.22	Karlsruher - Holstein Kiel	1:4
19.02.22	Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher	0:2
11.09.21	Karlsruher - Holstein Kiel	2:2
16.05.21	Karlsruher - Holstein Kiel	3:2

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