Match Info

National League South - Round 45

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday


	Hornchurch		Aveley

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	4.33
	1.71	3.7	4.4
	1.7	3.78	4.68
	1.7	3.75	4.73	Watch
	1.67	3.7	4.75
	1.65	3.8	4.7
	1.71	3.7	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.75)	3.7 ↓ (3.89)	4.57 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
54.8%

Draw
24.9%

Aveley
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

23.8%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

23.2%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Aveley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aveley than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Hornchurch - Aveley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Greenidge W. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
85', 2 - 0, Gibbs H. ⚽,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Aveley is Relegated to

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hornchurch won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Hornchurch is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Hornchurch won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6:11 (average 0.9:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Hornchurch won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3:7 (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
18.04.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Hornchurch - Truro City	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Welling United - Hornchurch	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Hornchurch - Weston-super-Mare	2:4 ✺
25.03.25	Hornchurch - Worthing	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLTLW
- Aveley
English National League South
18.04.25	Aveley - Chelmsford City	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Salisbury - Aveley	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Slough Town - Aveley	3:0 ✺
29.03.25	Aveley - Torquay United	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Aveley	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
26.12.24	Aveley - Hornchurch	1:1
English FA Cup
03.10.23	Hornchurch - Aveley	1:2 ET
30.09.23	Aveley - Hornchurch	2:2
English Isthmian League Premier Division
01.05.23	Hornchurch - Aveley	0:1
28.01.23	Hornchurch - Aveley	1:2
12.11.22	Aveley - Hornchurch	1:0
English FA Trophy
11.01.20	Hornchurch - Aveley	1:2

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