Match Info

National League South - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN
Paraguay	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Venezuela	DAZN


	Hornchurch		Weston-super-Mare

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.2	2.78
	2.47	3.28	2.87
	2.41	3.34	2.81	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.35	3.14	2.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.42)	3.19 ↑ (3.18)	2.8 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
38.2%

Draw
28.9%

Weston-super-Mare
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

29%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

30%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Weston-super-Mare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Weston-super-Mare than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Hornchurch - Weston super Mare Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Rees J. ⚽,
60', 2 - 0, Sandat H. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 2.

Hornchurch has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Weston-super-Mare is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hornchurch may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hornchurch won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Weston-super-Mare: 4.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	5	2	3	18:10	8	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
25.04.26	Hornchurch - Maidenhead United	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Chippenham Town - Hornchurch	1:3 ✺
14.04.26	Hornchurch - Chelmsford City	3:3 ✺
11.04.26	Hornchurch - Ebbsfleet United	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Maidstone United - Hornchurch	5:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWTWL
- Weston-super-Mare
English National League South
28.04.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Weston-super-Mare	1:2 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Weston-super-Mare - Dorking Wanderers	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Dagenham & Redbridge - Weston-super-Mare	0:0 ✺
14.04.26	Weston-super-Mare - Horsham	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Weston-super-Mare - Enfield Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
24.01.26	Weston-super-Mare - Hornchurch	1:2
09.08.25	Hornchurch - Weston-super-Mare	3:2
29.03.25	Hornchurch - Weston-super-Mare	2:4
31.08.24	Weston-super-Mare - Hornchurch	3:2
08.12.12	Weston-super-Mare - Hornchurch	1:0
01.09.12	Hornchurch - Weston-super-Mare	0:0

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