Match Info

National League South - Round 42

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday


	Welling United		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	2.8
	2.22	3.2	3.15
	2.21	3.2	3.34
	2.23	3.1	3.36
	2.22	3.2	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.63)	3.18 ↓ (3.5)	3.16 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Welling United
41.7%

Draw
29.1%

Hornchurch
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

26.4%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

25.5%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Welling United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Welling United's performance.

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hornchurch might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Welling United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hornchurch could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Welling United - Hornchurch Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hornchurch (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hornchurch (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 12).

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Welling could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Welling will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Welling won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:0 (average 2.3:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Welling won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0

Last Results with these Odds

Welling United - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.13%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Welling United
English National League South
29.03.25	Chesham United - Welling United	4:1 ✺
22.03.25	Welling United - Worthing	2:0 ✺
18.03.25	Welling United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Farnborough - Welling United	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Truro City - Welling United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLLL
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
29.03.25	Hornchurch - Weston-super-Mare	2:4 ✺
25.03.25	Hornchurch - Worthing	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	St Albans City - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Hornchurch - Slough Town	2:3 ✺
10.03.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
26.08.24	Hornchurch - Welling United	0:0
01.01.13	Welling United - Hornchurch	4:0
26.12.12	Hornchurch - Welling United	0:3

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