Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 1 October 2024, Tuesday


	Hornchurch		Leiston

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.2	5.5
	1.47	4.1	5.25
	1.5	4.33	5.5
	1.51	4.29	5.84	Watch
	1.47	4.3	5.89	Watch
	1.5	4.33	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.46)	4.26 ↑ (4.2)	5.58 ↓ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
62%

Draw
21.6%

Leiston
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

21.6%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

21%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Leiston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiston than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hornchurch - Leiston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Wraight T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', 1 - 1, Jackson E. ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 2)
107', 1 - 2, Loza J. ⚽,
120+7', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Replay (1st match was draw). 1st leg result: 1-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hornchurch won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Leiston could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Hornchurch is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Hornchurch won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.7:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Hornchurch won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:6 (average 1.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English FA Cup
28.09.24	Leiston - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
English National League South
21.09.24	Hornchurch - Chelmsford City	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
14.09.24	Hornchurch - Hashtag United	2:1 ✺
English National League South
07.09.24	Worthing - Hornchurch	0:0 ✺
03.09.24	Hornchurch - Farnborough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLWTW
- Leiston
English FA Cup
28.09.24	Leiston - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
24.09.24	Bedford Town - Leiston	4:3 ✺
21.09.24	Barwell - Leiston	0:0 ✺
10.09.24	Leiston - Sudbury Town	3:2 ✺
07.09.24	Halesowen Town - Leiston	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
28.09.24	Leiston - Hornchurch	1:1
English FA Trophy
07.10.23	Leiston - Hornchurch	2:1 penalties
English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.12.14	Hornchurch - Leiston	1:1
19.08.14	Hornchurch - Leiston	0:3
15.02.14	Hornchurch - Leiston	4:2
21.09.13	Leiston - Hornchurch	2:3

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