Match Info

National League South - Play Offs - Final

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hornchurch		Torquay United

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.45
	2.58	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.75	3.45	2.54
	2.66	3.25	2.6	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.53	3.4	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.57)	3.28 ↑ (3.28)	2.49 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
35.2%

Draw
27.9%

Torquay United
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.3%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Torquay United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Hornchurch - Torquay United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Moore D. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Poleon D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
78', 1 - 2, Moore D. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 2, McQueen D. ⚽,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
117', 3 - 2, Ling S. ⚽,

Preview

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Recently, Hornchurch has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Hornchurch won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Torquay: 14.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18:15	3	16

Last Results with these Odds

Hornchurch - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.93%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
02.05.26	Hornchurch - Weston-super-Mare	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Hornchurch - Maidenhead United	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Chippenham Town - Hornchurch	1:3 ✺
14.04.26	Hornchurch - Chelmsford City	3:3 ✺
11.04.26	Hornchurch - Ebbsfleet United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTWTW
- Torquay United
English National League South
02.05.26	Torquay United - Dorking Wanderers	4:2 ✺
25.04.26	Tonbridge Angels - Torquay United	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Torquay United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Slough Town - Torquay United	1:5 ✺
06.04.26	Torquay United - Bath City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
31.01.26	Hornchurch - Torquay United	1:2
01.11.25	Torquay United - Hornchurch	1:2
15.02.25	Torquay United - Hornchurch	2:1
26.10.24	Hornchurch - Torquay United	2:1

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