Match Info

Serie Rio de la Plata

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+, VTV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Montevideo Wanderers		Independiente

	1	X	2
	5.7	3.7	1.55
	7.71	3.67	1.5	Watch
	5.9	4	1.54	Watch
	8	3.75	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.83 ↑ (6.72)	3.78 ↓ (4.12)	1.52 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo Wanderers
13.7%

Draw
24.7%

Independiente
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.7%

22.4%

63.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Montevideo Wanderers have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Montevideo Wanderers - Independiente Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Rio J. (G) 17. Garcia A. 14. Acosta M. 6. Zazpe L. 15. Mencia Hernandez D. J. 20. Oriol S. 5. Queiroz N. 21. Guzman S. 24. Suarez P. 11. Luna J. 26. Martinez M.	33. Rey R. (C) 13. Fedorco J. 36. Valdez S. 3. Valenzuela M. 23. Marcone I. 17. Mazzantti W. 14. Millan L. 29. Godoy L. 19. Abaldo M. 10. Cabral L. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
16. Alberti J. 25. Buffa A. (G) 10. Cosentino L. 13. Formiliano F. 70. Martin B. 4. Nunez C. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 22. Porro E. 9. Roque R. 28. Talagorria L. 80. Urretaviscaya J.	38. Barros L. 1. Blazquez J. (G) 6. Freire N. 8. Galdames P. 35. Laprida A. 26. Lomonaco K. 40. Malcorra I. 16. Perez M. 25. Pussetto I. 27. Tarzia D. 22. Zabala F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Martinez M. ↓, Cosentino L. ↑,
27', Rey R. 🟨,
28', Quinteros G. 🟥,
29', Mencia Hernandez D. J. 🟨,
38', Queiroz N. 🟨,
42', Oriol S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Valenzuela M. ↓, Zabala F. ↑,
46', Cabral L. ↓, Malcorra I. ↑,
46', Fedorco J. ↓, Lomonaco K. ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Avalos G. ⚽,
54', Zazpe L. ↓, Olivera Moreira L. N. ↑,
60', Lomonaco K. 🟨,
69', 0 - 2, Avalos G. ⚽,
71', Mencia Hernandez D. J. ↓, Roque R. ↑,
71', Queiroz N. ↓, Talagorria L. ↑,
72', Suarez P. ↓, Alberti J. ↑,
72', Guzman S. ↓, Urretaviscaya J. ↑,
73', Avalos G. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
73', Mazzantti W. ↓, Laprida A. ↑,
73', Abaldo M. ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
73', Millan L. ↓, Pussetto I. ↑,
77', Laprida A. 🟨,
83', Godoy L. ↓, Barros L. ↑,

Preview

Wanderers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Independiente is the obvious favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
11.01.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.11.25	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	0:4 ✺
31.10.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Boston River	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLTTL
- CA Independiente
Serie Rio de la Plata
13.01.26	Independiente - Everton de Viña	5:3 ✺
10.01.26	Independiente - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.11.25	Independiente - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
10.11.25	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Independiente - Atlético Tucumán	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWWWW

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