Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 3

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports, TNT Sports Premium
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.9	Watch
	1.93	2.9	4.75
	2.15	3.05	3.65	Watch
	2.16	3.08	4.07
	2.11	3.08	3.93
	2.1	2.88	3.75
	2.11	2.99	3.86	Watch
	2.1	3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.95)	3 ↑ (2.83)	3.99 ↓ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Independiente
45%

Draw
31.4%

Vélez Sársfield
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

32.6%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Independiente - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Independiente (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Independiente (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Independiente (1.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente (votes: 15 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (C) 29. Godoy L. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 3. Valenzuela M. 10. Cabral L. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 40. Malcorra I. 7. Montiel S. 9. Avalos G. 19. Abaldo M.	12. Montero A. (G) 21. Gordon J. 16. Magallan L. 2. Mammana E. 3. Gomez E. 11. Pellegrini M. 5. Baeza C. 50. Andrada T. 22. Lanzini M. 15. Godoy D. 10. Valdes D.
Substitutes
4. Arias S. 1. Blazquez J. (G) 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 11. Mancuello F. 23. Marcone I. 17. Mazzantti W. 8. Millan L. 24. Palais J. 16. Perez Curci M. 25. Pussetto I. 22. Zabala F.	29. Aliendro R. 35. Arias M. 18. Escobar S. 4. Garcia J. 39. Machuca I. 1. Marchiori T. (G) 23. Monzon F. 20. Pizzini F. 6. Quiros A. 8. Robertone L. 32. Silvero T. 17. Veron A.
Coaches
Quinteros G.	Barros Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', Baeza C. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Gordon J. ⚽, Godoy D. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Gordon J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Valenzuela M. ↓, Zabala F. ↑,
46', Cabral L. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
59', Lomonaco K. 🟨,
63', Lanzini M. ↓, Robertone L. ↑,
63', Godoy D. ↓, Monzon F. ↑,
75', Pellegrini M. ↓, Veron A. ↑,
75', Baeza C. ↓, Aliendro R. ↑,
83', Abaldo M. ↓, Pussetto I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 2.

Independiente is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Independiente is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vélez: Garayalde N. (Inactive) Monzon F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.01.26	Newells Old Boys - Independiente	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Independiente - Estudiantes La Plata	1:1 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
16.01.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Independiente	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Independiente - Everton de Viña	5:3 ✺
10.01.26	Independiente - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTWWW
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.01.26	Vélez Sársfield - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Instituto Córdoba - Vélez Sársfield	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Vélez Sársfield - Argentinos Juniors	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	0:0 ✺
10.11.25	Gimnasia La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	2:1
12.02.25	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	3:0
Copa Argentina
27.09.24	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.05.24	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.01.24	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	0:1
27.08.23	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	2:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.02.23	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	0:0

Upcoming Matches