Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Independiente Medellín		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.5	2.38	Watch
	2.92	3.25	2.38	Watch
	3.06	3.45	2.42
	2.92	3.49	2.3
	2.8	3.25	2.3
	2.9	3.48	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.72)	3.4 ↑ (3.34)	2.35 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
32.4%

Draw
27.6%

Atlético Nacional
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

27.7%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.9%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 30. Palacios H. 24. Ortiz J. 33. Londono D. 18. Fabra F. 26. Mena Perea E. 14. Perlaza B. 8. Serna A. 10. Catano D. 13. Chaverra F. 19. Fydriszewski F.	1. Ospina D. (G) 6. Roman A. 16. Tesillo W. 28. Garcia S. 20. Casco M. 21. Campuzano J. 5. Uribe C. 19. Rengifo J. 18. Bello E. 29. Sarmiento A. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
28. Davila A. 5. Escorcia L. 16. Loboa H. 21. Mena J. 20. Montano J. 31. Moreno D. 23. Palacios M. 12. Romero S. (G) 88. Viveros J. 11. Yony Gonzalez	17. Arango C. 27. Asprilla D. 10. Cardona E. 15. Castillo H. (G) 7. Moreno M. 3. Parra N. 26. Rivero E. 24. Rosa J. 33. Velasquez S.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Arias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Catano D. ⚽,
7', 1 - 1, Sarmiento A. ⚽,
10', 1 - 2, Rengifo J. ⚽,
26', 2 - 2, Londono D. ⚽, Serna A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Catano D. ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
64', Palacios H. ↓, Loboa H. ↑,
66', Uribe M. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
67', Sarmiento A. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
78', Cardona E. 🟨,
79', Serna A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
79', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
79', Chaverra F. ↓, Montano J. ↑,
79', Bello E. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
82', Tesillo W. 🟨,
86', Loboa H. 🟨,
88', Morelos A. ↓, Rosa J. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 3, Ortiz J. (Own goal),

Preview

First leg result: 0-0. Aggregate: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

Atlético Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 0.

Ind Medellín has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Nacional is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:30. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atl. Nacional	11	7	2	2	21:10	11	23
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.06%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Nacional - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.19%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Estudiantes La Plata	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
02.04.26	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	2:1 ✺
23.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTWLW
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
06.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Cúcuta Deportivo	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
25.03.26	Cruz Azul - Atlético Nacional	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
21.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Inter Bogotá	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Copa
17.12.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	0:1
13.12.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	0:0
Colombian Primera A
04.12.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	2:1
23.11.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	0:0
26.10.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	5:2
07.09.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	3:3
04.05.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	1:1

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