Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 2

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)


	Independiente Medellín		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	6.25	Watch
	1.5	4.05	5.7	Watch
	1.56	4.05	6.19
	1.70	3.36	5.39	Watch
	1.5	3.6	5.75
	1.49	3.74	6.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.58)	3.82 ↓ (3.83)	5.92 ↑ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
60%

Draw
24.3%

Fortaleza CEIF
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

23.9%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

23%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Moreno D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90', Balanta Carabali K. A. 🟨,
90+2', 🟥,
90+4', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3.

Ind Medellín is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Fortaleza has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, Ind Medellín is a strong favorite.

We predict that Ind Medellín will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza CEIF - the odds 5.08 are the expected chance of winning is 18.02%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Flamengo	Abandoned ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Cusco	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Boyacá Chicó	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 ?LWWW
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Copa
08.05.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Leones	4:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Fortaleza CEIF - América de Cali	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
25.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0
17.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	3:1
Colombian Copa
03.09.25	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	2:1
27.08.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín	0:0
Colombian Primera A
27.04.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín	0:0
26.08.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín	2:2
17.02.24	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2

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