Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Independiente Medellín		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.45	Watch
	2.60	3.10	2.70
	2.78	2.98	2.58	Watch
	3.16	3.05	2.56
	2.7	3.09	2.79	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.5	Watch
	3.21	3.01	2.46	Watch
	2.9	3	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.4)	3.02 ↓ (3.26)	2.57 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
31.9%

Draw
31.3%

Vasco da Gama
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.7%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Independiente Medellín - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Vasco will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind Medellín: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 26. Mena Perea E. 4. Mantilla K. 5. Varela J. 13. Mena J. 16. Loboa H. 6. Moreno D. (C) 21. Martegani A. 70. Cordoba J. 11. Yony Gonzalez 20. Montano J.	1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 28. Adson 17. Moreira N. 11. Gomez A. 20. Brenner
Substitutes
10. Catano D. 39. Escorcia L. 1. Ichazo S. (G) 34. Klinger K. 17. Mancilla G. 9. Medina J. 31. Moreno D. 30. Palacios H. 14. Perlaza B. 12. Romero S. (G) 19. Simarra A.	13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 18. Hinestroza M. 8. Jair 98. JP 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 96. Paulo Henrique 83. Ramon Rique 10. Rojas J. 77. Spinelli C. 3. Tche Tche
Coaches
Perea L.	Emanuel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Loboa H. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 0, Montano J. ⚽, Yony Gonzalez (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', 1 - 1, Varela J. (Own goal),
58', Cauan Barros 🟨,
59', Adson ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
59', Moreira N. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
70', Brenner ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
70', Yony Gonzalez ↓, Catano D. ↑,
70', Loboa H. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
71', Rodriguez J. ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Montano J. ⚽, Medina J. (A),
80', Gomez A. ↓, Ramon Rique ↑,
80', Mena J. ↓, Escorcia L. ↑,
84', Cordoba J. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
84', Martegani A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Spinelli C. ⚽, Cuiabano (A),

Preview

First leg.

Ind Medellín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ind Medellín is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Vasco: 20.19%

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.91%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Vasco da Gama - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.43%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Copa
02.06.26	Independiente Medellín - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:1 ✺
29.05.26	Leones - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
20.05.26	Cusco - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
Colombian Copa
15.05.26	Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLWT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
16.07.26	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Barracas Central	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Red Bull Bragantino	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.05.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Vasco da Gama	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL

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