Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Patria (Sucre)

Referee: Alarcon J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 3
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 3
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Independiente Petroleros		Caracas

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.12	3.05	3.45	Watch
	2.17	3.16	3.7
	2.22	3.21	3.43	Watch
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.11	3.31	3.61	Watch
	2.36	3.45	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.34)	3.21 ↓ (3.4)	3.44 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Petroleros
43.4%

Draw
29.3%

Caracas
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

27.4%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

28.2%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Petroleros has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caracas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Petroleros than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	61.5%	7.7%

Independiente Petroleros - Caracas Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ind Petroleros will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Caracas will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 61.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Petroleros (votes: 2 - 50%). Caracas (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez J. (G) 2. Torres S. 5. Palma L. 16. Montero R. 4. Rodriguez F. 19. Cristaldo G. 6. Rojas D. 93. Willie 20. Mercado A. 9. Cristaldo J. E. 7. Cardozo R. (C)	1. Benitez F. (G) 2. Fereira Penaranda E. E. 4. Quintero J. 19. Mago L. (C) 13. Yendis J. 15. Larotonda C. 8. Gudino I. 33. Correa W. 10. Covea M. 7. Robert Hernandez 9. Fernandez A.
Substitutes
88. Adelan 82. Claros D. 39. Grass P. 32. Leanos H. 11. Lutkowski R. 13. Montenegro L. 27. Navarro D. 23. Rivas R. 8. Somoya M. 50. Vargas D. 12. Vera J. (G) 99. Wagner Pinote	22. Figueroa A. 27. Gonzalez S. 30. Herrera A. 14. La Mantia F. 35. Lezama R. 20. Maestre Nino L. A. 11. Marquez M. 3. Pagano L. 17. Reinoso L. 37. Vegas C. 12. Vegas J. (G) 5. Vegas M.
Coaches
Thiago Leitao	Aristeguieta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Rodriguez F. (Own goal),
15', 0 - 2, Fernandez A. ⚽, Gudino I. (A),
28', Torres S. 🟥,
34', Mercado A. ↓, Montenegro L. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Rodriguez F. ↓, Wagner Pinote ↑,
46', Cristaldo G. ↓, Rivas R. ↑,
46', Covea M. ↓, Reinoso L. ↑,
55', 1 - 2, Rivas R. ⚽, Cardozo R. (A),
57', Fereira Penaranda E. E. 🟨,
59', 2 - 2, Cristaldo J. E. ⚽, Montero R. (A),
67', 2 - 3, Correa W. ⚽,
82', Robert Hernandez ↓, Lezama R. ↑,
82', Cardozo R. ↓, Lutkowski R. ↑,
83', Correa W. ↓, Marquez M. ↑,
83', Fernandez A. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
83', Rojas D. ↓, Adelan ↑,
90+1', Gudino I. 🟨,
90+4', Reinoso L. ↓, La Mantia F. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Caracas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ind Petroleros has had a series of away games.

Recently, Caracas has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ind Petroleros won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Petroleros
Bolivian Division Profesional
01.05.26	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Independiente Petroleros	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Independiente Petroleros	3:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
24.04.26	Independiente Petroleros - Universitario de Vinto	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Bolívar - Independiente Petroleros	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Caracas - Independiente Petroleros	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.9 TLWWL
- Caracas FC
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Caracas - Racing	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.04.26	Caracas - Rayo Zuliano	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Zamora - Caracas	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Caracas - Independiente Petroleros	1:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
12.04.26	Caracas - Academia Anzoátegui	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Caracas - Independiente Petroleros	1:0

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