Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza)

Referee: Lobo Medina L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Independiente Rivadavia		Unión Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.7	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.2	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.28	3.13	3.82
	2.26	2.87	3.82
	2.2	2.9	3.4
	2.18	2.99	3.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.22)	3.01 ↓ (3.13)	3.57 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Rivadavia
42.3%

Draw
31.3%

Unión Santa Fe
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

29.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

28.4%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Unión Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Independiente R will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Unión will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente R: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente R (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Bolcato N. (G) 36. Bonifacio E. 40. Villalba I. 42. Studer S. 14. Gomez L. 5. Bottari T. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 10. Fernandez M. 43. Sartori F. 22. Villa S. (C) 9. Arce A.	21. Mansilla M. (G) 35. Vargas L. 2. Rodriguez M. 26. Luduena J. 11. Del Blanco M. 20. Palacios J. 30. Pitton M. (C) 24. Profini R. 22. Cuello B. 25. Tarragona C. 19. Estigarribia M.
Substitutes
19. Atencio R. 8. Bucca L. 2. Costa L. 27. Crego D. 3. Elordi J. M. 21. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 34. Moreyra S. 13. Osella A. 7. Ramis V. 20. Riep A. 11. Rios G. 32. Vazquez K. A.	4. Alvarez E. 9. Colazo A. 3. Corvalan C. 29. Diaz D. 13. Fascendini V. 7. Fragapane F. 43. Giaccone E. 10. Gonzalez T. 5. Menossi L. 40. Meuli L. (G) 32. Paz N. 23. Solari A.
Coaches
Berti A.	Madelon L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Pitton M. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Cuello B. ⚽, Palacios J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 0 - 2, Tarragona C. ⚽, Del Blanco M. (A),
53', Fernandez M. ↓, Rios G. ↑,
53', Bonifacio E. ↓, Elordi J. M. ↑,
56', Bottari T. 🟨,
63', Estigarribia M. 🟨,
64', Bottari T. ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Sartori F. ⚽,
75', Cuello B. ↓, Solari A. ↑,
81', Profini R. ↓, Menossi L. ↑,
81', Palacios J. ↓, Corvalan C. ↑,
86', Gomez L. ↓, Costa L. ↑,
88', Estigarribia M. ↓, Colazo A. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente R won 1.

Independiente R is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Unión has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Unión may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Independiente R might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Independiente R: Macagno R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Unión: Aguirre M. (Ankle Injury) Grella S. (Inactive) Palavecino N. (Inactive) Pitton B. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Independiente R won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente R won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Rivadavia - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Unión Santa Fe - the odds 3.31 are the expected chance of winning is 28.21%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Rivadavia
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.26	Aldosivi - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira	4:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	5:1 ✺
20.04.26	Banfield - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TTWWT
- Unión Santa Fe
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Unión Santa Fe - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Vélez Sársfield - Unión Santa Fe	2:2 ✺
17.04.26	Unión Santa Fe - Newells Old Boys	2:3 ✺
11.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Unión Santa Fe - Deportivo Riestra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.09.25	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente Rivadavia	2:2
10.03.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe	2:0
04.06.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe	0:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
24.02.24	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente Rivadavia	4:1
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.11.14	Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe	0:1
13.09.14	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0
25.05.14	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1

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