Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Marquez C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Independiente Santa Fe		Llaneros SA

	1	X	2
	1.48	4	7.5	Watch
	1.44	3.95	7.9	Watch
	1.46	4.21	7.78
	1.42	4.43	7.59	Watch
	1.4	4	7.5
	1.46	4.01	7.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.67)	4.1 ↑ (3.58)	7.63 ↑ (5.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Santa Fe
64.9%

Draw
22.8%

Llaneros SA
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

26.1%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

25.3%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Santa Fe's performance.

Llaneros SA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Llaneros SA might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Santa Fe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llaneros SA than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Independiente Santa Fe - Llaneros SA Predictions

Users Predictions: Independiente Santa Fe will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Asprilla W. (G) 13. Palacios H. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 20. Velasquez Y. 7. Torres J. 14. Palacios L. 17. Lovera M. 8. Fernandez O. 11. Rodallega H.	1. Ortega M. (G) 4. Pertuz J. 23. Moralez A. 21. Meza F. (C) 26. Quintero D. 6. Sierra M. 95. Jhon Vasquez 10. Ospina N. 33. Kelvin Osorio 7. Miranda L. 11. Marimon L.
Substitutes
19. Bustos N. 9. Fagundez F. 37. Jhon Renteria 2. Juan Quintero 1. Mosquera A. (G) 22. Mosquera E. 40. Palacios M. 4. Puerta M. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D.	15. Blanco J. 35. Caicedo K. 99. Castro J. 9. Cortes C. 14. Laszo E. 2. Mena Posada H. H. 8. Ramirez J. 22. Romana Garavito R. (G) 3. Vidal V.
Coaches
Repetto P.	Garcia J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Mafla C. 🟨,
5', Marimon L. 🟨,
33', Mafla C. 🟨,
33', Sierra M. 🟨,
37', Repetto P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kelvin Osorio ↓, Caicedo K. ↑,
46', Marimon L. ↓, Cortes C. ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Jhon Vasquez ⚽, Ospina N. (A),
54', Moreno V. 🟨,
56', Miranda L. ↓, Ramirez J. ↑,
63', Fernandez O. ↓, Fagundez F. ↑,
63', Palacios H. ↓, Puerta M. ↑,
69', Lovera M. ↓, Mosquera E. ↑,
70', Caicedo K. 🟨,
70', Quintero D. 🟨,
72', Quintero D. ↓, Mena Posada H. H. ↑,
79', Velasquez Y. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
79', Torres J. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
84', Jhon Vasquez ↓, Laszo E. ↑,
90', Olivera E. 🟨,
90+3', Moralez A. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 13).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Santa Fe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Santa Fe is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Santa Fe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19:12	7	22
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15:17	-2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
27.03.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Alianza Valledupar	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWTTL
- Llaneros Fútbol Club SA
Colombian Primera A
30.03.26	Llaneros SA - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
25.03.26	América de Cali - Llaneros SA	0:0 ✺
17.03.26	Llaneros SA - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:2 ✺
13.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Llaneros SA	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Llaneros SA - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
12.10.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Llaneros SA	1:3
30.04.25	Llaneros SA - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1

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