Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	Tigo Sports+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN, Inter


	Independiente del Valle		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	4.75	Watch
	1.92	3.05	4.45
	1.95	3.1	4.97
	1.35	4.15	11.12	Watch
	1.95	3.18	4.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.02)	3.32 ↑ (3.22)	6.03 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
54.1%

Draw
29.6%

Atlético Mineiro
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

29.3%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

28.4%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente del Valle's performance.

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente del Valle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Atlético MG (1.75) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Independiente del Valle will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente del Valle will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Atlético MG (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 5. Schunke R. 33. Velasco A. 15. Cortez G. 6. Alcivar J. 55. Guagua D. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 7. Mercado P. 77. Spinelli C. 11. Hoyos M.	22. Everson (G) 16. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Alonso J. (C) 25. Gabriel Menino 21. Franco A. 10. Gustavo Scarpa 13. Guilherme Arana 33. Rony 17. Igor Gomes 11. Bernard
Substitutes
21. Arroyo J. P. 12. Bores E. (G) 30. Ibarra R. 53. Lerma J. 19. Loor L. 32. Mendez J. 31. Pata E. 4. Quinonez O. 23. Santamaria T. 52. Vasquez Y. 18. Zabala C. 2. Zarate L.	5. Alexsander 77. Biel 42. Cadu 38. Caio Paulista 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 7. Hulk 48. Mateus Iseppe 2. Natanael 18. Reinier 26. Renzo Saravia 23. Roman I.
Coaches
Rabanal J.	Sampaoli J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Sornoza J. (Pen),
37', Sornoza J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gabriel Menino ↓, Natanael ↑,
56', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
62', Bernard ↓, Dudu ↑,
64', Velasco A. ↓, Zarate L. ↑,
64', Cortez G. 🟨,
68', Guagua D. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
73', Rony ↓, Hulk ↑,
73', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Biel ↑,
79', Guilherme Arana ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
84', Hoyos M. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
84', Sornoza J. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
87', Natanael 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 1, Dudu ⚽, Hulk (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Ind del Valle is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atlético MG's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ind del Valle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ind del Valle is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind del Valle won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.10.25	Orense - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
13.10.25	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
08.10.25	Gualaceo - Independiente del Valle	0:6 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.10.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Delfín	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLWWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.25	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
15.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
08.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	3:0 ✺
30.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Juventude	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
19.05.22	Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle	3:1
26.04.22	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
06.04.16	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	3:2
24.02.16	Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle	1:0

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