What is the expert prediction for Orense vs Independiente del Valle?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Orense vs Independiente del Valle. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Orense vs Independiente del Valle Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, October 17, 2025)

Match Info

Liga Pro - Championship Group - Round 2

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Orense		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.85	2.55	Watch
	2.92	3	2.4
	2.99	2.91	2.76
	2.92	2.82	2.68	Watch
	2.96	3.04	2.48	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↓ (3.08)	2.97 ↓ (3.23)	2.53 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orense
31.6%

Draw
31.4%

Independiente del Valle
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

28.4%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

27.3%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente del Valle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	28.6%	71.4%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 6. Arturia G. 4. Quinonez S. 15. Caicedo B. 50. Vasquez S. 26. Molina N. 17. Caicedo B. 8. Armas D. 11. Herrera A. 9. Bianchi O.	22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 14. Carabajal M. (C) 33. Velasco A. 15. Cortez G. 32. Mendez J. 7. Mercado P. 55. Guagua D. 26. Cazares 52. Vasquez Y. 11. Hoyos M.
Substitutes
24. Achilier G. 19. Bermudez M. 10. Burgoa V. 55. Hernandez E. 7. Luna R. 13. Mena A. 3. Mina S. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 2. Quinonez B. 32. Romero N. 77. Vinan B. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S.	6. Alcivar J. 21. Arroyo J. P. 12. Bores E. (G) 30. Ibarra R. 53. Lerma J. 19. Loor L. 31. Pata E. 4. Quinonez O. 23. Santamaria T. 5. Schunke R. 10. Sornoza J. 77. Spinelli C.
Coaches
Antuna R.	Rabanal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Molina N. 🟨,
36', Cazares 🟨,
42', Velasco A. 🟨,
42', Cazares ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', Armas D. ↓, Luna R. ↑,
58', Bianchi O. ↓, Burgoa V. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Molina N. (Own goal),
61', Luna R. 🟨,
71', Vasquez Y. ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
71', Guagua D. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
72', Molina N. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
73', Arturia G. 🟨,
78', 0 - 2, Spinelli C. ⚽, Hoyos M. (A),
78', Burgoa V. ↓, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Herrera A. (Pen),
83', Vasquez S. 🟨,
90', Mercado P. ↓, Santamaria T. ↑,
90', Hoyos M. ↓, Schunke R. ↑,
90+10', Sornoza J. 🟨,
90+10', Velasco P. 🟨,
90+14', Arturia G. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 0.

Orense has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ind del Valle is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ind del Valle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Orense won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.8:1.5).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.10.25	Libertad Loja - Orense	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Orense - Emelec	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	SD Aucas - Orense	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Orense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LTTWT
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Copa
13.10.25	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
08.10.25	Gualaceo - Independiente del Valle	0:6 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.10.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Delfín	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.09.25	Once Caldas - Independiente del Valle	0:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Orense	2:1
27.04.25	Orense - Independiente del Valle	1:2
01.12.24	Orense - Independiente del Valle	0:0
02.06.24	Independiente del Valle - Orense	1:0
25.11.23	Independiente del Valle - Orense	2:2
11.06.23	Orense - Independiente del Valle	0:2
06.08.22	Orense - Independiente del Valle	1:2

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