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Current Win Probability
El Nacional 24.3%
Draw 28%
Independiente del Valle 47.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
27.6%
28%
44.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.2%
27.6%
45%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
9.1%
90.9%
El Nacional - Independiente del Valle Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +0.25 - El Nacional (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
1X2, 1st Half - Ind del Valle (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Independiente del Valle will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%). Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente del Valle will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Ind del Valle (votes: 6 - 85.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 25. Montano M. 30. Carabali F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 18. Rivera B. 6. Olmedo M. 17. Velez C. 15. Cela A. 29. Cevallos J. 19. Mejia E. 21. Ledesma A.
1. Ramirez M. (G) 23. Santamaria T. 2. Zarate L. 14. Carabajal M. (C) 15. Cortez G. 6. Alcivar J. 7. Mercado P. 21. Arroyo J. P. 26. Cazares 17. Rodriguez A. 11. Hoyos M.
Substitutes
11. Branda V. 13. Caicedo E. 7. Chala J. 16. Cifuentes J. 33. Congo J. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 5. Flor F. 20. Guisamano J. 77. Hernandez B. 8. Martinez F. 24. Mora F. 14. Pazmino D.
53. Angulo A. 55. Guagua D. 30. Ibarra R. 19. Loor L. 9. Medina J. 31. Pata E. 4. Quinonez O. 10. Sornoza J. 77. Spinelli C. 33. Velasco A. 22. Villar G. (G) 18. Zabala C.
Coaches
Asad O. A.
Rabanal J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
11', 0 - 1, Hoyos M. ⚽, Arroyo J. P. (A),
23', 0 - 2, Rodriguez A. ⚽, Mercado P. (A),
26', 1 - 2, Cela A. ⚽, Cevallos J. (A),
28', Cortez G. 🟨,
32', Ledesma A. 🟨,
32', 1 - 3, Arroyo J. P. ⚽, Zarate L. (A),
44', Carabali F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Montano M. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
46', Olmedo M. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
62', Hoyos M. ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
63', Arroyo J. P. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
63', Cela A. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
63', Rivera B. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
73', Mercado P. ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
73', Cazares ↓, Zabala C. ↑,
73', Cortez G. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
73', Carabali F. ↓, Flor F. ↑,
Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 3.
El Nacional is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Ind del Valle is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
El Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Ind del Valle is a favorite.
Last 20 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 27:35 (average 1.4:1.8).
Including matches at home between the teams El Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:18 (average 1.4:1.8).
Ecuador
Peru
Usa
Watch
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Cabezas D. (C) 
Santamaria T. 
Zarate L. 
Medina J. 
Rabanal J. 
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