Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 5

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Emelec		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3.05	2.18	Watch
	3.34	3.2	2.32
	3.42	3.31	2.13	Watch
	3.25	2.9	2.1
	3.47	3.13	2.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↓ (3.57)	3.12 ↑ (3.09)	2.18 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
27.7%

Draw
29.7%

Independiente del Valle
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

29.8%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Emelec - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: Independiente del Valle will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente del Valle will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 27. Leon F. (C) 2. Leguizamon A. 4. Segura E. 14. Caicedo R. 6. Griffith V. 5. Mina A. 10. Pizzini F. 3. Guerrico I. 7. Klimowicz L. 23. Bolanos M.	1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 23. Viacava J. 15. Cortez G. 32. Mendez J. 11. Perello M. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 7. Mercado P. 31. Pata E. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
18. Carabali M. 21. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 20. Gonzaga J. 30. Mina A. 8. Napoli G. 9. Neris J. 16. Quintero S. 35. Tobar B. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G)	50. Angulo J. 12. Bores E. (G) 16. Briones R. 4. Espinoza J. 18. Gongora S. 53. Lerma J. 8. Ochoa Y. 51. Ordonez D. 17. Rodriguez A. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Sanchez V.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Guerrico I. ⚽,
20', Guerrico I. 🟨,
24', Sornoza J. 🟨,
24', 2 - 0, Caicedo R. ⚽,
30', Mercado P. 🟨,
31', Perello M. 🟨,
36', Griffith V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Perello M. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
46', Mendez J. ↓, Ochoa Y. ↑,
46', Cortez G. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
67', Reasco D. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
67', Mercado P. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
69', Klimowicz L. ↓, Neris J. ↑,
70', Leguizamon A. 🟨,
74', Bolanos M. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
74', Pizzini F. ↓, Quintero S. ↑,
81', Leguizamon A. ↓, Valencia S. ↑,
81', Mina A. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
86', Angulo J. 🟨,
90+3', Napoli G. 🟨,
90+3', Leon F. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.

Ind del Valle is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:32. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1:1.4).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	30	24	2	4	73:33	40	74

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente del Valle - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.38%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.03.26	Emelec - Orense	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Emelec - Delfín	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	5:1 ✺
15.12.25	Emelec - El Nacional	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTLW
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.03.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
02.03.26	Manta - Independiente del Valle	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Independiente del Valle - Guayaquil City	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.08.25	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	0:1
04.05.25	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	1:2
14.09.24	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	2:1
31.03.24	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	0:0
30.09.23	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	2:1
28.04.23	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	2:3
17.07.22	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	2:3

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