Match Info

SCOTLAND: League One - Round 20

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Tulloch Caledonian Stadium (Inverness)


	Inverness		Dumbarton

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.6	4.75
	1.63	3.6	4.4
	1.69	3.65	4.7
	1.69	3.71	4.77	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.5
	1.73	3.64	4.35	Watch
	1.69	3.65	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.61)	3.62 ↓ (3.79)	4.6 ↓ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Inverness
54.5%

Draw
25.5%

Dumbarton
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

24.3%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

23.9%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Inverness has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Dumbarton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Inverness than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Inverness - Dumbarton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Dibaga M. (G) 27. Nolan J. 6. Devine D. (C) 5. Savage R. 22. Bray K. 8. MacKinnon A. 7. Gilmour C. 26. Allan P. 11. Longstaff L. 9. McKay B. 10. Bavidge A.	1. Long B. (G) 12. Pignatiello C. 2. Lynas A. 4. Schilte-Brown E. 24. Clark C. (C) 8. Wilson D. 20. Niang M. 10. Gray F. 6. Blair R. 22. Shiels M. 7. Orsi K.
Substitutes
23. Cairns E. 15. MacKay C. 14. MacLeod C. 25. Rebilas S. (G) 24. Stewart A. 12. Strachan M. 18. Thompson R.	14. Doyle O. 5. Durnan M. 17. Hilton J. 21. McGuffie C. 9. Mumbongo J. 16. Nicol M. 19. O'Neil P. (G) 11. Wallace T. 3. Young G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Bavidge A. ⚽, Longstaff L. (A),
37', Long B. ↓, O'Neil P. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Shiels M. 🟨,
68', 2 - 0, Gilmour C. ⚽, Allan P. (A),
68', Wilson D. ↓, Hilton J. ↑,
68', Lynas A. ↓, Durnan M. ↑,
75', Longstaff L. ↓, Stewart A. ↑,
85', MacKinnon A. ↓, Cairns E. ↑,
88', McGuffie C. 🟨,
90+4', Bavidge A. ↓, MacKay C. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Inverness won 2.

Inverness is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Dumbarton is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Inverness is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Inverness won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12:9 (average 1.5:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Inverness won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:2 (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Inverness CT
Scottish League One
28.12.24	Inverness - Cove Rangers	1:4 ✺
21.12.24	Stenhousemuir - Inverness	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Inverness - Arbroath	0:2 ✺
07.12.24	Montrose - Inverness	2:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
30.11.24	Cove Rangers - Inverness	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLTL
- Dumbarton
Scottish League One
28.12.24	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	2:0 ✺
21.12.24	Montrose - Dumbarton	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Dumbarton - Annan Athletic	1:5 ✺
07.12.24	Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton	4:0 ✺
03.12.24	Alloa Athletic - Dumbarton	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
26.10.24	Dumbarton - Inverness	3:1
03.08.24	Inverness - Dumbarton	1:1
Scottish League Cup
18.07.23	Dumbarton - Inverness	2:1
Scottish Football Championship
18.04.18	Dumbarton - Inverness	0:1
14.04.18	Inverness - Dumbarton	5:1
Scottish Challenge Cup
24.03.18	Dumbarton - Inverness	0:1
Scottish Football Championship
16.12.17	Inverness - Dumbarton	1:0

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